Chinese holidaymakers are cooling on Thailand as scam fears and rising costs send more travellers towards Vietnam. The kingdom now expects 5.1 million arrivals in 2026, far below earlier targets and less than half its pre-pandemic peak.
Thailand’s grip on China’s vast tourism market is slipping as safety fears drive holidaymakers towards fast-rising Vietnam. The kingdom now expects only 5.1 million Chinese arrivals, less than half its 2019 total. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s foreign tourism market is surging 13.8%, while Thailand’s contracts despite retaining a narrow lead. The battle is intensifying as China’s weakening economy leaves travellers choosier about safety, prices and value.
Thailand is losing ground among Chinese holidaymakers as safety concerns and stronger regional competition reshape Asia’s outbound tourism market. Chinese travellers will make fewer overseas trips during late 2026 than forecasters previously expected. China’s weak economy has made households more selective about destinations, prices and value. Yet demand remains above pre-pandemic levels.
China Trading Desk now expects approximately 179 million outbound journeys during 2026. The travel data firm forecasts destination spending of around $258 billion. Significantly, both projections are almost 3% below estimates issued in June. Even so, the annual totals would still set records.
China’s outbound tourism recovery has not stopped. Rather, its pace has slowed as households examine travel costs more closely. Subramania Bhatt, head of China Trading Desk, said consumers had not lost their appetite for travel. Instead, they are becoming more selective about timing and whether trips offer sufficient value.
Chinese travellers protect holiday budgets as fewer overseas journeys intensify competition across Asia
Crucially, the weakness concerns journey numbers rather than spending during each holiday. Travellers still going overseas are maintaining broadly similar trip budgets. Consequently, destinations must compete for fewer journeys without facing a comparable collapse in individual spending. For Thailand, that distinction matters.
China’s prolonged property crisis remains the main economic drag on consumer confidence. In parallel, the Middle East conflict has disrupted long-haul routes and increased uncertainty surrounding distant holidays. As a result, some Chinese travellers are selecting destinations closer to home. Geopolitics and safety fears are also changing established travel patterns.
Japan, previously one of China’s favourite destinations, has suffered following a diplomatic dispute concerning Taiwan. Subsequently, Chinese airlines reduced flights between the two countries. Chinese arrivals in Japan are now expected to more than halve during 2026. The latest forecast puts that market at approximately 4.1 million visitors.
South Korea has emerged as the clearest winner from Japan’s decline. In particular, it is attracting high-spending shoppers and travellers switching away from Japan. South Korea expects approximately seven million Chinese visitors this year. Their spending could approach $13 billion, averaging roughly $1,815 for each visitor.
Safety fears drive Thailand’s Chinese target lower after scam reports and Wang Xing kidnapping case
Thailand faces a different but equally damaging challenge. Heavy coverage of scam networks, disappearances and tourist safety incidents has weakened Chinese confidence. Indeed, those concerns were visible before China Trading Desk reduced its wider outbound forecast. Thailand had already begun lowering its expectations.
In June, the Association of Thai Travel Agents cut its 2026 Chinese visitor target. The association reduced its forecast from nine million arrivals to seven million. Above all, it identified safety concerns as the main obstacle to Thailand’s recovery. Reports involving ransom cases, disappearances and scam-linked crimes had received extensive coverage in China.
Separately, higher travel costs reduced Thailand’s attraction among increasingly cautious Chinese households. Damaging Chinese social-media coverage also amplified individual incidents. Furthermore, reports about trafficking and scam compounds near Myanmar became associated with Thailand. That connection persisted although many criminal compounds operated outside Thai territory.
The January 2025 kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing inflicted particularly serious damage. Wang entered Thailand before being taken across the border into neighbouring Myanmar. Nevertheless, Chinese social-media coverage strongly connected his ordeal with travel through Thailand. The case reinforced fears that Chinese visitors could face danger after entering the kingdom.
Thailand expects 5.1 million Chinese arrivals but remains far below its pre-pandemic market peak
Thailand’s current official forecast is considerably lower than the travel association’s revised target. The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects approximately 5.1 million Chinese arrivals during 2026. That projection sits sharply below its earlier ambition of 6.7 million. Still, it would represent growth from approximately 4.5 million arrivals during 2025.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects a year-on-year increase of about 14%. Despite that recovery, the market would remain far below its former scale. Nearly 11 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand during 2019. Accordingly, the current forecast represents less than half the pre-pandemic total.
Chinese visitors remain Thailand’s largest foreign tourism market. Some 3.33 million arrived between January 1 and August 15. Therefore, Thailand needs another 1.77 million Chinese visitors during the remaining four-and-a-half months. That would take arrivals to the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s 5.1 million forecast.
Chinese consumers have not simply abandoned foreign holidays. By comparison, they now possess more competitive choices across Southeast and East Asia. Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore have expanded flights serving Chinese cities. Additionally, those countries simplified entry arrangements and strengthened Chinese-language marketing.
Vietnam closes in on Thailand as Chinese tourist markets are separated by exceptionally narrow margins
Vietnam has become Thailand’s most serious regional tourism competitor. So far, it has not decisively displaced the kingdom among Chinese visitors during 2026. Thailand received 1.49 million Chinese tourists during the first quarter. Vietnam followed with 1.4 million, while Malaysia recorded 1.41 million.
Thailand therefore reclaimed first place among Southeast Asian destinations during that quarter. Notably, its advantage over Vietnam amounted to only about 90,000 arrivals. Its lead over Malaysia was even smaller, at approximately 80,000 visitors. Thus, the three leading markets were separated by extremely narrow margins.
Vietnam’s wider international tourism industry is also expanding much faster than Thailand’s. It welcomed 13.9 million foreign visitors during the first seven months of 2026. That total represented 13.8% growth from the corresponding 2025 period. In contrast, Thailand received 16.21 million international visitors through July 4.
Thailand still recorded more international arrivals in absolute terms. However, its total was 3.11% lower than during the comparable period last year. Put differently, Vietnam was expanding while Thailand’s overall international market was contracting. This divergence has intensified competition for Chinese travellers and regional airline capacity.
Vietnam gains with value, new destinations and flights as Thailand retains key tourism advantages
Vietnam is generally perceived as offering better value across accommodation, food and organised tours. At the same time, its destinations provide comparatively fresh experiences for Chinese visitors. Da Nang and Nha Trang offer extensive beach and resort markets. Meanwhile, Phu Quoc has emerged as another important island destination.
Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City provide urban, cultural, shopping and dining attractions. Beyond that, new and restored direct flights have improved access from numerous Chinese cities. Vietnam has increasingly promoted itself as a safe, orderly and family-friendly destination. Thailand faces contrasting complaints involving higher prices, tourist scams and declining value.
Thailand retains several important strengths within the Chinese market. For instance, permanent visa-free entry removes a significant obstacle for holidaymakers. Likewise, extensive flight connections link Thailand with major Chinese population centres. The kingdom also has established shopping, food, resort and entertainment industries serving Chinese visitors.
On another front, regional competition now extends beyond Thailand and Vietnam. Malaysia received 1.41 million Chinese tourists during the first quarter, narrowly trailing Thailand. Singapore has also expanded its Chinese market through easier entry and stronger air connections. Hence, Thailand faces several competitors for increasingly selective Chinese consumers.
Hong Kong leads on volume while France shows how fewer Chinese visitors can deliver greater spending
Economic uncertainty is also pushing travellers towards nearby destinations. Hong Kong and Macau now account for almost 40% of China’s outbound market. Their proximity provides an advantage during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Nonetheless, large visitor numbers do not necessarily produce equally large tourism receipts.
Hong Kong expects around 41 million journeys from mainland China during 2026. Yet average expenditure is forecast at only about $310 for each visitor. France presents the opposite pattern. It expects only 2.2 million Chinese trips but generates far greater spending from each traveller.
Average Chinese visitor expenditure in France is projected at $7,622. In other words, arrival totals and tourism revenue measure different commercial outcomes. One destination can receive huge visitor numbers while collecting relatively modest expenditure. Conversely, smaller markets can attract fewer visitors but secure much higher spending per journey.
Across the Chinese outbound market, trip numbers should still rise 7% from 2025. Average expenditure is projected at approximately $1,437 for every overseas journey. Even with that growth, the latest forecast removes millions of trips from earlier expectations. Thailand must now compete for a smaller market during the second half.
Thailand loses its regional dominance as Vietnam closes the gap for selective Chinese holidaymakers
The kingdom no longer dominates Chinese outbound tourism across Southeast Asia. Its projected 5.1 million arrivals remain far below the travel industry’s initial nine-million expectation. Moreover, the total remains below the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s previous 6.7 million ambition. It would also stay below half of Thailand’s 2019 Chinese arrival total.
Vietnam is simultaneously gaining among younger, independent and value-conscious Chinese travellers.
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During the first quarter, Thailand remained ahead, but Vietnam stood only 90,000 arrivals behind. At the same point, Vietnam’s overall foreign market was expanding rapidly. Thailand’s comparable total was falling from the previous year.
Chinese outbound travel continues growing, while expenditure per journey remains broadly intact. However, Thailand is competing for fewer journeys than previously forecast. Safety coverage, higher costs and regional alternatives have weakened its former advantage. Consequently, Vietnam is rapidly closing the gap within one of Asia’s most valuable tourism markets.
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