TAT cuts its 2026 long-haul tourism forecast by one million visitors after Middle East flight disruption, but arrivals are down just 1.6%. Europe and the Americas hold firm as new routes, lower fuel costs and winter bookings drive recovery plans for a ฿685 billion sector.
Thailand’s crucial long-haul tourism market faces a 2026 test as the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) cuts its forecast by one million visitors after Middle East turmoil and months of flight chaos. However, the sector has avoided a feared slump, with arrivals down just 1.6% as Europe and the Americas hold firm. With the US-Iran peace deal raising hopes for lower fuel costs and restored routes, tourism chiefs are chasing new flights, emerging markets and a winter rebound to protect a sector worth ฿685 billion last year.
Thailand’s long-haul tourism sector faces a tougher 2026 after the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) cut its forecast. The agency confirmed on Wednesday that it now expects 10 million long-haul foreign visitors this year. The figure is down from an earlier target of 11 million after months of aviation disruption.
However, the revised outlook remains stronger than feared after the Middle East conflict disrupted key international flight networks. The damage has centred mainly on Gulf routes, while Europe and the Americas continue to provide stable demand.
The latest data shows Thailand’s long-distance markets remain largely intact despite pressure on global travel.
TAT cuts long-haul forecast but arrivals remain resilient despite Middle East flight disruption impact
Chiravadee Khunsub, TAT deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, announced the revised projection. She said the agency lowered expectations after flight problems over the previous three months. The reduction leaves Thailand targeting the same long-haul arrival level recorded last year.
Nevertheless, TAT figures show the sector has avoided a deeper decline. As of June 7, Thailand had welcomed five million long-haul tourists. That represented a fall of only 1.6% compared with the same period in 2025.
In contrast, the Middle East market recorded a sharp drop after regional instability hit air travel. Arrivals from the region fell by 32%, making it the hardest-hit long-haul source area. The fall followed disruption across Gulf states and changes to airline operations.
Last year, the long-haul sector became a crucial pillar of Thailand’s tourism industry. The market increased by 10% to 10.8 million visitors. Furthermore, these travellers generated ฿685 billion in revenue for the kingdom.
At the same time, long-distance visitors helped support Thailand’s wider foreign tourism recovery. The country finished 2025 with 33 million international arrivals. Growth was driven mainly by European visitors, with Eastern Europe producing particularly strong results.
US-Iran peace deal raises hopes for lower fuel costs and stronger flight capacity later in the year
The latest challenge follows the impact of the US-Iran conflict on international aviation. Thai tourism officials are now watching whether the peace agreement will support recovery. Lower jet fuel costs could also help airlines restore capacity and expand routes.
In response, Thailand is preparing for stronger connectivity during the second half of the year. The sector expects more flights if aviation conditions continue improving. Yet airlines are still adjusting after the disruption caused by the Middle East crisis.
Thai Airways earlier announced route cuts while adapting to the changed operating environment. The carrier faced pressure from the fallout of the US-Iran conflict. The disruption added another challenge for Thailand’s efforts to rebuild air capacity.
Meanwhile, TAT continues to push its airline-focused strategy. The plan aims to secure more direct flights from different international markets. Officials want to reduce reliance on any single aviation hub or route network.
Emerging markets deliver growth as TAT expands direct flight strategy beyond traditional tourism hubs
The strategy has already supported growth in several emerging visitor markets. Kazakhstan arrivals climbed by 8.3%, while Uzbekistan jumped by 28%. Notably, Poland also delivered strong growth, with visitor numbers rising by 16.8%.
As part of this, TAT has instructed overseas offices to maintain campaigns during the low season. The agency is also working with airlines to preserve direct connections. These efforts focus on protecting access from important long-haul source markets.
Separately, officials are looking beyond major cities in mature tourism markets. France has become one focus of this expansion plan. TAT is seeking direct flights from secondary cities, including Lyon and Bordeaux.
In parallel, Thailand is strengthening links through major international transit hubs. Turkey is being promoted as a gateway through Turkish Airlines’ services. The route strategy is aimed particularly at maintaining access from European markets.
North Asian carriers support access from the Americas as winter bookings point to stronger demand
On another front, North Asian carriers are being used to reach travellers from the Americas. Airlines including Korean Air and EVA Air are part of the wider connectivity effort. These networks provide additional options for long-haul visitors travelling to Thailand.
The third quarter remains the most difficult period for long-distance tourism. It is traditionally Thailand’s low season for international arrivals. Many European travellers also choose shorter journeys closer to home during the summer months.
Even so, TAT sees improved prospects for the fourth quarter. Forward bookings show stronger demand as the winter travel period approaches. The strongest signs are coming from four-star and five-star hotel reservations.
Long-haul travellers also remain less affected by price pressure than short-haul tourists. Many continue choosing premium holidays despite cheaper options in competing destinations. This gives Thailand an advantage in higher-spending tourism segments.
However, competition from China and Vietnam continues to increase. Both destinations offer similar products with significantly lower hotel prices. Five-star accommodation in Thailand typically costs around ฿7,000 per night.
Thailand targets winter rebound with new routes to Krabi and Phuket as airlines prepare services
By comparison, similar hotels in China and Vietnam cost roughly ฿3,000 per night. The price gap has become another factor in regional tourism competition. Thailand continues relying on established destinations and higher-value long-haul demand.
For the Middle East market, discussions with airlines and travel agents show improving conditions. Carriers are preparing to restart more services during the winter schedule. Planned flights include connections to major southern destinations such as Krabi and Phuket.
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Additionally, new European services are scheduled later this year. LOT Polish Airlines will begin its Warsaw-Bangkok route in October. Scandinavian Airlines is also preparing winter flights to Krabi.
The revised TAT forecast confirms a more cautious tourism outlook for 2026. Yet the data shows long-haul markets have remained close to last year’s performance. The final months will now depend on flight recovery, connectivity and demand from key overseas markets.
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Further reading:
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Tourism Levy will take at least six months to implement even after a cabinet decision to approve it
New Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system coming soon with a ฿300 tourist levy and insurance
