Thailand’s tourism strategy faces its biggest credibility test yet as foreign arrivals fall for a third straight year while Spain and Greece surge ahead. Industry leaders warn 4 million Thai jobs are at risk as ministers defend their dubious “Value over Volume” policy.
Thailand’s flagship “Value over Volume” tourism strategy has come under fierce pressure after official figures revealed a third consecutive annual decline in foreign arrivals, even as booming rivals Spain and Greece surge ahead. With 4 million Thai jobs hanging on the industry’s fortunes, tourism leaders are openly challenging the government’s recovery strategy, warning that its pursuit of higher-spending visitors risks weakening one of the kingdom’s most powerful engines for jobs, income and economic growth that benefits the grassroots economy.
Thailand’s foreign tourism industry is facing renewed pressure after official figures showed a third straight annual decline in arrivals during the first five months, even as ministers insisted the kingdom remains on course for more than 33.2 million visitors this year.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports has presented the January-to-May figures as a sign of resilience amid global competition, economic uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East. However, the numbers tell a harder story. Thailand welcomed 14.03 million foreign tourists in the first five months of 2026, down from 14.36 million in 2025 and 14.76 million in 2024.
The decline is more striking because rival destinations are still growing. Spain has recorded a 3.4% increase in arrivals. Greece has posted a 27.1% rise in visitor numbers, with tourism revenue up 36.8%. By comparison, Thailand has still not recovered the arrivals or income levels seen before the disastrous 2020 shutdown of the kingdom.
Industry questions government’s Value over Volume policy as Thailand falls behind faster-growing rivals
Against that backdrop, a senior tourism leader has questioned the government’s policy of “Value over Volume”. Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said ministers still lack a clear definition of high-value tourism. He also warned that the industry supports around 4 million jobs across the country.
“The government still lacks a comprehensive viewpoint and appropriate policies to lift tourism,” said Mr Adith.
The government wants Thailand to become a high-income nation by 2038. High-value tourism is one of seven industries expected to drive that goal. Wellness tourism and revenue growth are key pillars of the plan. However, Mr Adith said the government has not explained whether “high value” means higher daily spending, longer stays or wider income distribution.
“Who creates higher value: a tourist who spends 100,000 baht for three days at a private hospital or someone who spends 50,000 baht while visiting five provinces on a 15-day trip?” he asked.
Tourism leaders say visitor numbers remain vital because millions of Thai jobs still depend on the sector
That question cuts to the centre of the debate. A medical tourist may spend more in a shorter time. However, a traveller moving through five provinces spreads money across hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, cafés, markets, transport operators and local attractions. Consequently, the lower-spending visitor may support more businesses and more workers.
Mr Adith said volume remains necessary for Thailand’s tourism structure. Major destinations such as Japan, China, Spain and Australia still set arrival targets. Thailand, he said, also needs growth in both arrivals and revenue because the sector carries a vast workforce.
The warning is especially sharp for small and medium-sized operators. A narrow focus on wellness or luxury tourism could shift income towards larger players. Meanwhile, smaller accommodation providers, tour operators, restaurants, drivers and freelancers could lose business. Many jobs would then be at risk in an industry that still reaches deep into the grassroots economy.
Tourism remains one of Thailand’s most effective sectors for spreading income. It benefits large hotels, but it also supports guesthouses, family restaurants, food suppliers, taxi drivers, boat operators, market traders and freelance workers. Notably, many activities sit within the grey economy, where visitor spending still provides real household income.
Tourism chief urges measurable targets as economists question Thailand’s long-term dependence on visitors
For that reason, Mr Adith wants measurable indicators built into the national tourism strategy. These should include job creation, income distribution and average length of stay. Tourism revenue alone, he said, does not show how widely the money spreads or how many workers benefit.
The debate also comes as some Thai economic thinkers continue urging a wider shift away from tourism dependence. For more than a decade, they have argued that Thailand cannot become an advanced economy by relying too heavily on foreign visitors. Instead, they have pushed for higher-productivity sectors, including digital industries, healthcare, technology and advanced manufacturing.
Even so, tourism retains one advantage few sectors can match. It creates jobs across skill levels and regions. It also moves foreign spending quickly through the domestic economy. Therefore, the issue is not whether tourism matters. The question is whether Thailand is measuring its value correctly.
Ministry insists Quality Destination strategy will deliver stronger growth through higher spending
Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Natthariya Thaweewong, defended the government’s approach. She said Thailand’s tourism sector continues to show positive signs after receiving more than 14 million international tourists in the first five months for a third consecutive year.
Ms Natthariya said the figures reflected tourist confidence and Thailand’s strength as a leading global destination. She said the ministry is moving forward under the government’s “Value over Volume” strategy to turn Thailand into a “Quality Destination”.
The policy aims to create added economic value, distribute income to communities, upgrade service standards, ensure safety and promote sustainable tourism. Ms Natthariya said the goal is not measured only by visitor numbers. Instead, officials are also focusing on revenue, quality and the benefits reaching people and businesses in all regions.
“Thailand’s goal is not measured solely by the number of visitors, but also by the quality of tourism, the revenue generated, and the benefits distributed to the people and businesses in all regions. This ensures that tourism remains a key engine for driving the country’s economy in a stable and sustainable manner.”
Koh Samui success and visa reforms form the centrepiece of the government’s tourism plan
The ministry also points to Koh Samui as evidence of Thailand’s quality destination strategy. The island was voted Best Island 2026 in the Asia-Pacific region by the Travel + Leisure Luxury Awards Asia Pacific 2026. Officials said the award reflects premium experiences, natural resource protection, community lifestyles and standardised services.
Koh Samui remains a top destination alongside Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Pattaya. From the start of the year to March 31, more than 1,006,112 international tourists visited the island. They generated more than ฿25.53 billion in revenue. German, British, Israeli, French and Chinese visitors were among its key foreign markets.
Looking ahead, the ministry plans more international events, festivals and activities in the second half of the year. It will also promote health tourism, sports tourism, community-based tourism and cultural tourism. As part of this, Koh Samui will be used as a model to upgrade other destinations across Thailand.
Separately, Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul is preparing visa proposals aimed at supporting the recovery. The government is considering a 15-day visa exemption for Indian travellers, who currently need a visa on arrival. It is also considering a 30-day visa-free entry for all European Union countries.
Visa reforms and weaker arrivals sharpen questions over Thailand’s ability to compete with European rivals
Croatia, Bulgaria, Cyprus and Malta would receive the same treatment as other EU members under the proposal. The changes would be considered by the visa policy committee overseen by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The review follows a cabinet decision on May 19 to scrap 60-day visa-free entry for travellers from 93 countries. New entry rules were approved for each country. However, the measure has not yet taken effect because it still requires publication in the Royal Gazette.
Mr Surasak said the reduction in visa exemptions should not damage tourism. He said easing geopolitical tensions, following an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, could support travel demand. The ministry expects foreign tourism revenue this year to match last year’s level at about ฿1.53 trillion from 32.9 million visitors.
However, Thailand’s competitive problem remains clear. If the Middle East war and global uncertainty explain Thailand’s weaker numbers, Spain and Greece are moving in the opposite direction. Their growth raises sharper questions about whether Thailand’s difficulties are only external or also domestic.
Hotel industry says corruption, infrastructure and education still undermine Thailand’s competitiveness
Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said Thailand must elevate standards across the whole tourism system. He identified corruption, inferior infrastructure and inefficient education as major obstacles.
He said illegal accommodation remains more common than licensed hotels in some areas, despite clear regulations. Consequently, licensed operators face unfair competition while enforcement remains weak. The problem also undermines the government’s claim that Thailand is moving decisively towards higher-quality tourism.
Infrastructure is another weakness. Mr Thienprasit said Thailand has not prioritised investment as it should have. The country still lacks convenient rail transport to all second-tier destinations. It also lacks enough venues to host world-class events. As a result, efforts to spread income beyond major destinations remain limited.
Education is a further concern. Mr Thienprasit said the tourism and hospitality sector has enough skilled workers. However, the education system should be updated more often to match global trends and market demand. He cited new technology and foreign languages as areas where workers need more practical skills.
Falling arrivals leave the government’s Value over Volume strategy facing a tough credibility test
Together, the figures and industry warnings have turned the tourism debate into a test of government credibility. Ministers say Thailand is moving towards higher-quality growth. Yet arrivals continue to fall from recent levels, while competitors are expanding. The government says value matters more than volume. However, operators say Thailand still needs both because 4 million workers depend on a broad visitor base.
The issue is no longer whether tourism should change. Thailand clearly wants more revenue, better standards and stronger destinations. The harder question is whether the government’s strategy can deliver those gains while protecting jobs, small businesses and income distribution across the grassroots economy.
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For now, the numbers are uncomfortable. Thailand has received over 14 million visitors in the first five months, but the trend is downward. Spain and Greece are growing. Thailand remains below 2019 levels. That leaves the government’s Value over Volume policy facing a blunt test: whether it can raise tourism value without letting the wider industry, and its 4 million workers, slide further behind.
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