Thailand’s economy is surging ahead on paper as exports rise, growth forecasts improve and global ratings agencies express confidence. Yet new data reveals a harsher reality: household incomes are falling, debt is rising and the richest 10% capture one-third of all labour income.
Thailand’s economy is showing two very different faces. Growth forecasts are improving, exports are strengthening, tourism remains resilient and international ratings agencies continue to express confidence in the kingdom’s finances. Yet new data released on Thursday showed household incomes falling for the first time in six years, rising dependence on assistance and a widening income gap. The richest 10% of earners now capture nearly one-third of all labour income, while the poorest survive on just ฿2,635 a month. The figures reinforce long-standing concerns that chronic inequality remains one of Thailand’s most significant structural economic challenges despite signs of an ongoing, elite-biased recovery.
Thailand’s economy is producing a familiar contradiction. Growth forecasts are improving. Export projections are strengthening. International confidence remains intact. Yet household incomes are falling and inequality remains entrenched.
New data released on Thursday highlighted the scale of the divide. Workers in Thailand’s richest 10% earned an average of ฿36,706 a month. By comparison, workers in the poorest 10% earned just ฿2,635. The gap was nearly 14-fold.
At the same time, the highest-earning 10% captured 32% of total labour income. Meanwhile, the bottom half of income earners shared only 22% between them.
Thailand’s widening income divide exposes an elite within the elite despite stronger growth prospects
The figures point to what economists increasingly describe as an elite within the elite. Income concentration remains severe even among higher-income groups. More importantly, the latest data suggests the benefits of economic growth remain unevenly distributed across society.
The findings emerged as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia on Thursday. Back in Bangkok, officials and business leaders were presenting a notably brighter economic outlook.
However, the household figures painted a less encouraging picture. They suggested many families remain under pressure despite improving macroeconomic indicators.
According to SCB EIC, the research arm of Siam Commercial Bank, average household income fell to ฿28,308 a month in 2025.
Previously, the figure stood at ฿29,030 in 2023. The decline of 2.5% marked the first fall recorded in six years. Researchers attributed the deterioration mainly to weaker earned income. Specifically, labour income contracted by 4.8% during the period.
Average household income falls for the first time in six years as labour earnings weaken nationwide
The analysis was based on the National Statistical Office’s 2025 Household Socio-Economic Survey. The survey covered 57,600 households nationwide. As a result, the findings provide one of the most comprehensive pictures of household finances available this year.
SCB EIC said the figures reflected continuing fragility in Thailand’s labour market. Equally significant, they revealed the concentration of income among higher-income households during a slow recovery. Consequently, economic expansion has not translated into stronger earnings for large sections of the population.
Notably, lower-income households are becoming increasingly dependent on outside support. Income from financial assistance increased by 19.4% between 2023 and 2025. This category includes old-age allowances, disability payments and government assistance programmes. In addition, it includes support from relatives and other individuals outside the household.
SCB EIC reported that 60% of lower-income households relied on some form of assistance. These households earned no more than ฿15,000 a month. That figure alone illustrates the financial strain facing many families. Furthermore, it highlights the growing role of welfare and support payments in sustaining household finances.
Reliance on assistance payments rises sharply as lower income households face growing pressure
At the same time, debt burdens continued to rise. Lower-income household debt increased by 1.9% compared with 2023. More than half of indebted households reported insufficient income to cover expenses. Moreover, over two-thirds experienced income shortfalls. Consequently, many families remain financially vulnerable despite signs of wider economic recovery.
The pressure extends beyond poorer households. Middle-income families are also facing increasing financial strain. SCB EIC defined this group as households earning less than ฿50,000 a month. According to the research, these families are being squeezed by daily living costs and debt repayments. As inflationary pressures build, that squeeze may intensify further in 2026.
In response, SCB EIC warned that rising household vulnerability could eventually weigh on domestic consumption. For now, researchers expect temporary support from the government’s ฿400 billion emergency loan programme.
Over the longer term, however, the institution argued that stronger household incomes remain essential. It also highlighted the need for improved labour skills and greater financial resilience.
Debt burdens and rising costs leave poorer and middle income families under increasing strain
Separately, research platform Bnomics examined a broader trend. Thailand’s economy has expanded over the past decade. Yet the gains have not been shared equally. According to the study, GDP per capita increased from ฿221,195 in 2016 to ฿288,315 in 2025. That represented an average annual growth of 3%.
By contrast, overall GDP growth averaged just 1.1% a year over the same period. Despite rising national wealth, many households experienced little improvement in living standards. As such, stronger headline figures failed to produce corresponding gains across large sections of society.
Bnomics also highlighted the growing concentration of labour income. Drawing on National Statistical Office data, the platform found that the top 10% accounted for nearly one-third of labour earnings. Meanwhile, the bottom half received less than one-quarter. The imbalance remains one of the defining features of Thailand’s economy.
On another front, a Bank of Thailand study revealed a longer-term shift. Labour income accounted for 49% of GDP between 2001 and 2005.
However, that share fell to 44% between 2016 and 2023. Researchers linked the decline to several structural factors. These included automation, demographic change, an ageing population and rising household debt. They also cited evolving consumer behaviour and shifts in productivity.
GDP per capita rises but labour’s share falls as inequality becomes increasingly entrenched
Taken together, the studies point to a common conclusion. Economic growth and household prosperity have become increasingly disconnected. While GDP per capita has risen steadily, many lower-income households have seen limited improvement in their financial position.
The findings echo warnings issued repeatedly by international institutions. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have highlighted Thailand’s inequality challenge.
For years, those organisations have linked chronic inequality to the kingdom’s structural weaknesses. They have also argued that inequality limits growth potential and weakens productivity gains.
Against that backdrop, recent economic forecasts have become more optimistic. Earlier this week, Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun outlined a more positive scenario for 2026. Her assessment centred on developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on global trade.
Suphajee sees stronger economic growth if Middle East tensions ease and trade routes reopen
Speaking at Government House on Tuesday, Ms Suphajee said a peace agreement between the United States and Iran would benefit Thailand. Referring to stronger export performance, she said: “That’s good. The export target for the first quarter of 2026 is also very good. Therefore, we expect things to move in a positive direction, but we need to monitor the situation closely. We must be prepared.”
The minister focused particular attention on the Strait of Hormuz. The route remains one of the world’s most important shipping corridors. According to Ms Suphajee, conditions could improve significantly if a ceasefire agreement is finalised. She said: “If such an action is taken, it would be beneficial for all of us, but we need to observe the situation over the next one or two days.”
She also stressed the need for caution. “However, we must prepare ourselves as much as possible to deal with any situation,” she said. The Commerce Ministry continues to monitor prices and potential economic impacts.
Looking ahead, Ms Suphajee suggested growth forecasts could improve. The first-quarter growth figure reached 2.8%. Current projections place full-year growth between 1.5% and 2% if conditions remain unchanged. However, she indicated that a peace agreement could push growth higher.
Export forecasts improve sharply while tourism shows resilience despite regional uncertainty
According to the minister, reopening shipping routes would reduce disruptions and ease energy costs. In turn, purchasing power could strengthen and trade activity could expand. As a result, Thailand’s GDP growth could exceed 2% in 2026.
Exports are already showing signs of improvement. Earlier expectations pointed to weaker performance. Now, forecasts suggest exports could rise by as much as 10% next year. That marks a significant shift from previous projections.
Tourism data presents another mixed picture. Long-haul arrivals are down only 1.6% this year. Previously, the segment grew by 10% in 2025. The figures suggest resilience in several markets despite global uncertainty.
Nevertheless, weakness remains visible in parts of the sector. The Middle Eastern market has been particularly affected. Arrivals from the region are down 32% this year. Even so, officials believe that figure could improve if regional stability returns.
S&P and Moody’s affirm confidence in Thailand’s finances despite global economic uncertainty
In parallel, international ratings agencies have continued to back Thailand’s economic management. On Thursday, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking welcomed S&P Global Ratings’ decision to affirm Thailand’s BBB+ rating. The agency also maintained its Stable Outlook.
Earlier, Moody’s reaffirmed Thailand’s Baa1 rating and revised its outlook to Stable. According to the committee, both decisions reflected confidence in Thailand’s macroeconomic management and fiscal discipline. They also reflected confidence in the kingdom’s external financial position.
Significantly, S&P cited Thailand’s ability to withstand global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and changing trade conditions. The decision came despite recent current account deficits. Consequently, business leaders viewed the rating affirmation as an important signal for investors.
The Joint Standing Committee said Thailand continued to possess strong economic foundations. It pointed to policy continuity and economic stability. At the same time, however, the group acknowledged the need for deeper reforms.
Business groups push productivity reforms and OECD membership to boost long term growth
As part of this, the committee called for stronger productivity growth and greater competitiveness. It also urged faster economic restructuring and the creation of new growth engines. Furthermore, it supported targeted investment and continued fiscal discipline.
The private sector also backed Thailand’s efforts to join the OECD. Business leaders argued that membership would strengthen governance, transparency and regulatory standards. In addition, they supported reforms aimed at upgrading industries and creating higher-quality employment.
Yet the latest household data explains why those reforms remain central to the economic debate. Thailand’s financial system remains stable. International credit agencies continue to express confidence. Exports are strengthening. Tourism is recovering. Growth forecasts are improving.
Strong economic indicators continue to clash with weak household finances and inequality
Nevertheless, household finances tell a different story. Average incomes are falling. Assistance payments are becoming more important. Debt burdens remain elevated. Moreover, labour’s share of national output continues to decline.
The contrast is increasingly difficult to ignore. On one side stand improving economic indicators. On the other hand, stagnant household earnings and widening income disparities. The gap between the two remains substantial.
Business lobby urges Anutin to improve climate for inward investment by axing old laws and red tape
Bad news for the Thai economy as loan growth falters while consumer confidence fell off a cliff in April
Ultimately, Thursday’s figures reinforced a long-standing concern. Thailand continues to generate growth. However, the distribution of that growth remains deeply uneven. The kingdom’s strongest economic indicators continue to coexist with one of its most persistent structural weaknesses.
For policymakers, economists and business leaders, the message was clear. Growth alone does not explain the condition of Thai households. Instead, the latest data showed that chronic inequality remains firmly embedded in the economy. Even as forecasts improve and investor confidence holds, the divide between top earners and ordinary households remains one of Thailand’s defining economic realities.
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Further reading:
Business lobby urges Anutin to improve climate for inward investment by axing old laws and red tape
Tax and welfare revolution as Thailand moves ahead with Negative Income Tax that expands reporting
Thumbs up from economic gurus for 2027 Negative Income Tax plan. It’s a game-changer for progress
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