Sirikanya slams government minister’s 3-quarter GDP streak claims as misleading, citing weak industry and Chinese transshipments. Warns of looming recession, fading tourism, and budget gimmicks. Urges urgent use of idle funds: “These are red flags, not green shoots.”
People Party firebrand and economic spokesperson Sirikanya Tansakul has slammed claims by Deputy Finance Minister Paophum Rojanasakul of record economic growth over the past three quarters. Paophum had earlier pointed to a revised 3.1% GDP figure for the first quarter of 2025. When combined with the final two quarters of 2024—both posting growth above 3%—he said it marked only the seventh time in Thai history that such a run had occurred. But Ms Sirikanya dismissed the narrative as false optimism. She specifically questioned how goods exports could have surged 13.8% in early 2025 while industrial output rose just 0.6%. The implication, she noted, was clear: transshipments from China, driven by US demand ahead of looming American tariffs. Despite her criticism, the opposition leader voiced tentative support for the government’s fiscal plans expected later in 2025.
Ms Sirikanya Tansakul, deputy leader of the Peoples Party, has dismissed the government’s claim of economic success as misleading. She said GDP growth under Prime Minister Paethongtarn Shinawatra’s government was shallow, short-lived, and driven by distortions—not strength. Her comments came after Deputy Finance Minister Paophum Rojanasakul announced that Thailand had achieved over 3% GDP growth for three straight quarters.
He called it the first such streak in seven years and only the seventh in Thai history. The minister praised the economic direction of the new administration, which took office in the third quarter of 2024.
Sirikanya questions sharp export rise despite weak industrial output and calls growth data misleading
However, Ms Sirikanya took aim at the numbers. She questioned how exports could surge while industry remained flat. “GDP rose 3.1% in Q1. Exports grew 13.8%, yet industrial output increased only 0.6%,” she wrote on Facebook. “So what exactly did we export?”
Notably, Thai exports to the United States grew by 34.3% in March 2025, the largest rise in three years.
She suggested that the jump in exports was artificially driven by shipments rushed out to beat new U.S. tariffs. In her view, the boost didn’t reflect real growth in domestic production. Instead, it might involve re-exports or even counterfeit goods transiting through Thailand. “We have to ask: did those goods come from Thai factories or from somewhere else?” she said.
Although Mr Paophum saw signs of momentum, Ms Sirikanya saw fragility. She warned that the growth was built on shaky ground. According to her, the mismatch between exports and production raised serious questions. “These are red flags, not green shoots,” she said. “The economy is vulnerable, not recovering.”
NESDC forecast prompts warning of a possible recession if export growth stalls in the second half of 2025
Moreover, she cited fresh data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). It expects total export growth for 2025 to slow sharply to just 1.8%. That would undercut the early-year gains and pull GDP down. “If exports flatline, full-year growth could fall from 2.8% to only 1.8%,” she said. “That’s dangerously close to a technical recession.”
She explained that if GDP contracts for two straight quarters, Thailand would meet the standard definition of recession. “We need to stop cheering premature numbers,” she said. “It’s better to prepare for what’s coming.”
In her post, she also questioned whether public investment would continue to support growth. The first-quarter figures showed total investment rising by 4.7%, but she said that was due to delayed disbursement of the 2024 budget. “That money only began flowing in April 2025,” she said. “We’ll see the effect now, but it won’t last.”
She warned that the final two quarters could be much weaker. As the delayed spending dries up, momentum could fade fast. Therefore, she said, new stimulus measures were urgently needed.
Tourism momentum fading as arrivals stall in key markets and export gains begin to lose steam
Tourism, too, was no longer as promising. She noted that while service exports rose 7% in Q1, that figure was modest. “Tourism grew by 25% last year as it bounced back from COVID,” she explained. “But now we’re nearing the ceiling.”
She said signs of decline had already appeared, especially in key markets like China and Malaysia. “These groups used to drive volume,” she said. “Now we’re seeing fewer arrivals.” If the trend continues, Thailand may not reach its target of 39 million tourists in 2025. “We’ve likely peaked,” she warned.
Despite her critiques, Ms Sirikanya supported the cabinet’s recent pivot on digital wallet spending. Originally, the government had allocated ฿157 billion to boost household consumption. However, it has now decided to redirect that budget toward public investment.
She said this shift was wise—if handled properly. “We need to avoid another wasteful spree like the COVID-19 loan programme under Prayut,” she said. “That effort produced little lasting benefit.”
Sirikanya urges immediate use of unused funds to counter global headwinds and support the economy
To bolster the budget further, she called on the government to tap the central emergency reserve fund. So far, only ฿30 billion of the ฿96 billion approved by Parliament has been spent. That leaves ฿66 billion unused. “Add that to the wallet money, and we’ve got ฿223 billion available,” she said. “Let’s use it smartly.”
She urged the administration to act quickly, as only four months remain in the 2025 budget cycle. She said the strategic deployment of these funds could support investment and cushion external shocks. “We’ll need it to counter U.S. tariffs and boost both tourism and local spending,” she said.
At the same time, she stressed the need for accountability. She said every baht must be tracked and tied to results. “Let’s not repeat past mistakes,” she warned. “This is our last chance to turn things around.”
Deputy Minister Paophum, for his part, remained optimistic. He said the three-quarters of strong growth reflected solid policy and economic stewardship. “This momentum shows we’re headed in the right direction,” he told reporters. “We have a good base to build on.”
Government warns of external risks as Sirikanya accuses it of cherry-picking history and data
However, he acknowledged rising global risks. These include trade tensions, changing tax policies, and currency volatility. “These are outside our control,” he said. “But our response will be firm, timely, and targeted.”
He added that the government would adjust its strategy as needed. The goal, he said, is to protect national interests while ensuring sustainable growth. “We’ll do what’s necessary,” he said. “But we won’t overspend.”
He also noted that Thailand’s historical growth records show how rare sustained momentum is. “We’ve had this kind of growth streak only seven times,” he said. “The most remarkable was during the Thaksin era—22 quarters in a row.”
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Even so, Ms Sirikanya warned against cherry-picking history. She again pointed to the NESDC’s updated forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in 2025. Combined with minimal export gains, this makes recession a real threat.
She urged the public to consult the NESDC’s full data themselves. “Download the Excel files,” she wrote. “It’s all there. These claims aren’t just misleading—they’re disconnected from reality.”
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Commerce Minister meets US trade boss Jamieson Greer in Korea. Paul Chambers case still dogs talks
