Bangkok scrambles to finalise a crucial US trade deal as deadline looms. Trump slaps 25% tariff on India, raising fears Thailand could face similar terms. Despite last-minute tweaks, hopes fade that Thailand can match Vietnam’s 20% rate as it has reportedly resisted offering 0% access to all US imports.
Thailand just sent its final tariff proposal to US Trade representatives in Washington as talks hit the wire. A decision is expected within 24 hours. Officials in Bangkok are still pushing for a rate below the 20% given to Vietnam, but chances are slim. Thailand hasn’t offered full 0% access to US imports—a key demand also raised with India. Meanwhile, President Trump slapped a 25% tariff on India overnight. That tough line could soon be Thailand’s reality too.
Thailand is nearing the conclusion of crucial trade negotiations with the United States. A final tariff proposal is expected to be submitted today, according to Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. He confirmed that revisions were made late Wednesday, with both sides working against the clock.
The talks, ongoing for several months, are focused on securing favourable tariff terms for Thai exports. Minister Pichai revealed that his team worked through the night to meet the US-imposed August 1 deadline. He said the latest proposal includes sensitive adjustments, but he expects it will be final.
“We’ve been in constant contact,” he said. “I responded to the proposal yesterday and will send it back this evening.”
Thai-Cambodian border clashes do not disrupt US trade talks as minister assures negotiations continue
Despite political tension along the Thai-Cambodian border, the minister assured that negotiations with Washington have not been disrupted. Clashes erupted last week along the disputed frontier. However, the Finance Ministry confirmed that there were no US instructions to delay or halt negotiations.
“The situation has begun to ease,” Pichai said. “It has not affected the talks.”
He acknowledged the economic consequences of the conflict but emphasised that rebuilding efforts could support local economies. Repaired homes and public infrastructure are expected to generate short-term jobs and spending.
At the same time, Thailand’s broader economic outlook has improved slightly. The Ministry of Finance has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward, from 2.1% to 2.2%. Strong export performance in the first half of the year was the key driver. Even so, officials remain cautious. They warn that slower tourism in the second half could affect full-year momentum.
Analysts predict US tariffs on Thai goods will match regional peers between 19 and 20% amid talks
Meanwhile, analysts and market observers are watching the US-Thai deal closely. Many expect Washington to impose a tariff rate of between 19 and 20% on Thai goods. This would align Thailand with regional peers like Vietnam and Indonesia, both of which secured similar rates. However, unlike those countries, Thailand has not granted the same trade concessions.
Nonetheless, Thailand has reportedly offered zero tariffs on more than 90% of American product groups. It has not extended full tariff-free access, but this level of openness is seen as significant.
Recent developments in US trade policy have added urgency to the situation. On July 30, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all Indian imports. He also announced new penalties for India’s purchases of Russian energy and arms. Trump accused India of maintaining excessively high tariffs and harsh non-tariff barriers. He described India’s trade policies as “exorbitant” and “despicable.”
He further criticised India’s military and energy ties to Russia, saying they undermine global pressure on Moscow over Ukraine.
“India is our friend, but we’ve done little business with them for this reason,” Trump said on Truth Social. “They will now face 25% tariffs plus penalties.”
India pledges fair trade as it weighs impact of US tariffs targeting Russian ties and high import duties
India has responded cautiously. Officials stated that they remain committed to fair, balanced trade. They added that India’s top priority is protecting small businesses, investors and farmers.
Notably, India’s trade deficit with the United States last year was $45.6 billion on $87.4 billion. In contrast, Thailand’s was $37.4 billion, on exports of $55.1 billion, a similar profile. Indian industry faces an initial tariff of only 26%, while Thailand’s was set at 36%. These figures, together with Thailand’s failure to concede full 0% access, must be borne in mind.
The Trump administration had earlier introduced reciprocal tariffs in April, targeting many US trading partners. However, enforcement was suspended to allow countries to negotiate. August 1 is the final deadline for reaching new agreements.
In Thailand, analysts say the ongoing US-Thailand talks have supported positive investor sentiment. Koraphat Vorachet, head of research at Krungsri Securities, said global trade optimism has recently improved. A separate US-Europe agreement contributed to that shift. That deal involved a 15% tariff in exchange for major energy and investment flows from Europe.
Trump signals global tariffs should remain between 15 and 20%, boosting confidence among Thai exporters
Trump also signalled that future global tariffs should fall within a 15 to 20% range. This statement, analysts say, lifted confidence among Thai exporters and foreign investors.
As a result, Thai energy and chemical stocks have shown gains. Crude oil prices rose by 2.36%, supporting energy firms that represent a large portion of the Thai stock market. The chemical sector, long under pressure, is also rebounding. Analysts now believe it may be entering a new growth cycle. Shares in PTT Global Chemical, in particular, are viewed as undervalued and well-positioned.
The Thai-Cambodian ceasefire, which took hold earlier this week, also reduced regional tensions. That has further improved investor outlook. Companies with exposure to Cambodia, such as Carabao Group, have seen modest gains.
According to Daol Securities, final details of the US-Thailand tariff deal are likely to be announced this week. A result in the 19 to 20% range would put Thailand in line with regional norms. InnovestX Securities agreed, citing additional support from an extended US-China tariff freeze. That agreement, extended through August 12, includes new rules to curb aggressive price-cutting.
Federal Reserve’s steady rate policy encourages capital shift to equities, analysts see limited economic impact
Analysts also point to the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady this week. This has encouraged capital to shift from bonds into equities, especially in sectors linked to artificial intelligence and industrial exports.
While risks from Cambodia remain, analysts say the impact on Thailand will likely be limited. The two economies are not deeply integrated, and large-cap Thai stocks have minimal exposure.
Finance Minister explains the Kingdom’s latest offer to US officials as Thailand pursues competitive tariff deal
As the deadline approaches, Thailand remains focused. Minister Pichai and his team are racing to close the deal. A tariff rate under 20% would be seen as a political and economic victory. The final result is expected within 24 hours.
