Thailand’s consumer confidence falls to a six-month low as war fears, the US-Iran war and rising oil prices hit outlook. UTCC survey shows weak jobs, income and spending sentiment below 100, while oil volatility, tourism slowdown and IMF warning deepen uncertainty.
Research published on Thursday by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) shows the US-Iran war has further diminished consumer confidence in Thailand. The figures show the lowest level in six months, alongside a sharp slowdown in foreign tourism and the wider global economy due to shipping disruptions and higher costs. It comes as the US-Iran ceasefire remains fragile, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising 1% on Thursday.
The Centre for Business and Economic Forecasting, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, released its March 2026 consumer confidence survey on April 9, 2026. The report showed a decline in confidence across Thailand.
Moreover, it marked the lowest level in six months since October 2025. In addition, the drop was driven by war concerns and rising oil prices. These concerns centred on tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Consequently, household sentiment weakened across multiple indicators.
Furthermore, the Centre linked the decline to expectations of higher living costs. At the same time, it cited risks to Thailand’s economic growth. Moreover, rising energy prices added pressure to consumer outlooks. Therefore, uncertainty increased across spending expectations. In addition, geopolitical tensions shaped short-term sentiment. Meanwhile, households adjusted expectations downward across key categories.
Consumer confidence in Thailand falls to six month low as war fears and oil prices drive sentiment decline
The economic confidence index stood at 45.5 in March. Meanwhile, the job opportunity confidence index reached 49.8. In addition, the future income confidence index recorded 60.2. These figures declined from January levels. Specifically, January posted 47.3, 51.5, and 62.4, respectively. Consequently, all three indicators moved lower across the period.
Moreover, all indices remained below the neutral level of 100. This indicates weak consumer confidence overall. In contrast, levels above 100 indicate stronger sentiment. However, none of the indicators crossed that threshold. Therefore, confidence in jobs, income, and the economy remained subdued. In addition, perceptions of recovery stayed weak.
The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 51.8 in March. Previously, it stood at 53.7 in the prior reading. Moreover, the decline reflected weaker views of economic recovery. At the same time, households reported high cost-of-living pressures. In addition, uncertainty over geopolitical conflict remained elevated. Consequently, confidence weakened further across the reporting period.
Current consumer confidence dropped to 35.9. Previously, it stood at 37.4. Meanwhile, future confidence fell to 59.7 from 61.7. Therefore, both current and forward-looking sentiment declined. Moreover, both readings stayed below the neutral level of 100. In addition, this confirmed a continued lack of confidence in present conditions.
Thailand’s spending outlook weakens as homes delay purchases amid geopolitical and energy uncertainty
Furthermore, the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting expects cautious spending in early 2026. In addition, it expects restraint during the first half of the year. Consequently, households are likely to delay non-essential purchases. Moreover, consumers are waiting for clearer geopolitical outcomes. At the same time, energy prices remain a key uncertainty factor. Therefore, spending decisions remain highly cautious.
In addition, government stimulus measures are under close observation. Meanwhile, households are evaluating policy responses. Moreover, clarity on external risks remains limited. Therefore, spending behaviour is expected to remain restrained. At the same time, economic visibility remains low. Consequently, consumption patterns continue to reflect caution.
Global oil markets also moved sharply on April 9, 2026. WTI crude oil rose by 3.46 dollars per barrel. Consequently, it closed at 97.87 dollars for May delivery. In addition, Brent crude rose by 1.17 dollars. It settled at 95.92 dollars per barrel for June delivery. Moreover, prices stayed below 100 dollars for a second consecutive session.
Oil markets volatile as US Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks trigger sharp intraday price swings
Furthermore, global oil prices rose about one per cent during the day. However, trading remained volatile throughout the session. In addition, early trading showed stronger upward movement. Prices surged more than five per cent at one stage. Consequently, markets reacted to supply disruption concerns. At the same time, volatility remained elevated.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions influenced trading conditions. In addition, uncertainty centred on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Moreover, concerns focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This route remains a key global oil shipping corridor. Therefore, supply risk fears supported early price gains. At the same time, sentiment shifted rapidly.
However, price gains eased later in the trading session. In addition, reports of diplomatic activity influenced sentiment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered agencies to begin negotiations with Lebanon. Moreover, discussions included the disarmament of Hezbollah. Consequently, regional tensions showed partial easing. At the same time, risk pressure on energy markets declined.
Global markets rise as stocks and gold gain while the dollar weakens amid geopolitical uncertainty
Furthermore, US stock markets closed higher on the same day. In addition, gold prices also moved upward. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened during trading. Therefore, broader financial markets reflected mixed but reactive sentiment. Moreover, investors adjusted positions amid geopolitical developments. At the same time, volatility remained present across asset classes.
Overall, consumer confidence indicators continued to decline across Thailand. Moreover, energy prices moved higher during the same period. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty remained a central driver of sentiment. Consequently, households are set to maintain cautious spending behaviour. At the same time, financial markets reflect ongoing sensitivity to global tensions.
Anxiety about oil supplies and prices as economic growth in 2026 now dependent on the US Iran War
2026 economic growth could be slashed to 0.5% if War with Iran rages on for months says Bank of Thailand
The Bank of Thailand has already warned that the present crisis has raised the chances of an international systemic shock within the financial services industry. Thai banks have already responded by bolstering reserves and provisions against losses in the small business sector and overborrowed households.
The disappointing data comes with a sharp slowdown in foreign tourism, particularly from European markets, which has hit the economy with lower earnings and cash remittances. The country’s export sector is also set to be hit through shipping disruptions and reduced international demand.
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed lower economic activity worldwide, particularly in China, which is a key market for Thai goods and services.
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Further reading:
Anxiety about oil supplies and prices as economic growth in 2026 now dependent on the US Iran War
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