Thailand’s fragile government faces collapse as the Senate vote-fixing scandal explodes and Thaksin heads to court. With economic pain mounting and coalition parties at war over cannabis, land, and reform, a Constitutional Court case could bring it all down.
Thailand’s byzantine political machinations are set to converge in the coming weeks as a major crisis looms. With the country’s ailing economy worsening the situation, tensions between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, are rapidly escalating. Crucially, both the Prime Minister and the cabinet that previously healed emerging rifts in the coalition may no longer be enough to contain unfolding events. Two flashpoints threaten to trigger the government’s collapse. The first is the high-stakes hearing scheduled for 13 June into former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s controversial imprisonment between August 2023 and February 2024. The second—and far more serious—is the explosive Senate collusion scandal supported by overwhelming evidence.
Not only are the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) and the Election Commission actively pursuing sitting senators for alleged corruption, but a new legal front has opened. Activist Nattaporn Toprayoon has formally petitioned the Office of the Attorney General to investigate a major political party for allegedly attempting to overthrow the state.
Thailand is facing a perfect storm. Economic stagnation, coalition infighting, legal battles, and corruption scandals are converging at once. Growth has stalled. Since 2019, the economy hasn’t expanded more than 3% annually. In 2020, it shrank by 6.2%. Recovery has been feeble and uneven.
Despite a rebound since 2022, even tourism has failed to regain 2019 levels. In addition, deep structural problems persist. Household debt is still sky-high. Public sector borrowing keeps rising and is set to rise even higher.
Income inequality remains entrenched. Moreover, poor education, widespread corruption, and a worsening drug crisis weigh heavily on national morale.
A fractured coalition faces revolt over cannabis, credibility, and the fallout from Srettha’s ousting
Successive governments have failed to fix these long-standing issues. The current administration seems equally unprepared.
Yet the real threat lies in politics. The 2023 election failed to deliver a clear mandate. Instead, it created a fragile coalition. Pheu Thai shocked many by abandoning its reformist allies. It joined hands with conservative rivals like United Thai Nation and Bhumjaithai. Palang Pracharat was dropped from the cabinet soon after. This patchwork alliance has been unstable from the start.
Internal conflict is mounting. Cannabis policy is a prime example. Bhumjaithai, led by Deputy PM Anutin Charnvirakul, had pushed and indeed achieved decriminalisation in 2022. The policy turned Thailand into Asia’s first cannabis-friendly country.
Cannabis cafes popped up overnight. But backlash followed. Pheu Thai campaigned to re-criminalise the drug, promising stricter control.
However, after taking power, then-PM Srettha Thavisin reversed course. He faced pressure from Bhumjaithai and business interests benefiting from legal cannabis. The promised rollback never came. That retreat cost Pheu Thai credibility. Then, the Constitutional Court removed Srettha from office over an appointment scandal. His exit triggered more turmoil.
Paetongtarn’s cabinet faces land probes, blocked reforms and a Senate scandal under investigation
Now, under Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the coalition faces fresh crises. Land disputes are dragging in top figures. The Land Department is reviewing a golf club linked to the Shinawatra family. At the same time, the Transport Ministry is targeting land controlled by Bhumjaithai figures. Activist Srisuwan Janya has added to the fire. He raised concerns about another golf course tied to Anutin. That case is now also under investigation.
Meanwhile, proposed constitutional reforms have hit a wall. Pheu Thai wants major changes. But Bhumjaithai has blocked them using its influence in the Senate. Tensions are boiling over. Allegations of Senate corruption have reached the DSI and the Election Commission. Both agencies have opened formal probes.
Certainly, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) has produced overwhelming evidence to support the claims of collusion. Indeed, not just collusion, but an industrial-grade conspiracy and orchestrated effort to control the 2024 Senate election. Furthermore, there is evidence suggesting that a heavily funded operation was successful in electing 140 senators.
Another fight is brewing over the Entertainment Complex Bill. The law would open the door for mega-casino complexes in Thailand. While the coalition backs the idea on paper, Bhumjaithai’s leadership fiercely opposes it. Anutin called for a referendum. Pheu Thai ministers swiftly shot that down. They saw it as a challenge to cabinet authority.
As if that weren’t enough, two major flashpoints are now threatening to sink the government.
Thaksin’s so-called prison stay draws backlash and a Supreme Court probe over legal misconduct
First is the case of Thaksin Shinawatra’s imprisonment—or lack thereof. Thaksin returned from exile in August 2023. He was sentenced to prison for corruption. Yet he never spent a night in jail. Within hours, he was transferred to the Police General Hospital. There he remained for six months, under medical care and relative comfort.
The move outraged critics. Last week, the Medical Council suspended three doctors involved. Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin is now reviewing the decision. He is a close ally of the Shinawatras. More seriously, the Supreme Court of Political Office Holders is now involved. It has launched its own investigation. A public hearing is scheduled for 13 June.
Top government officials and agency heads have been summoned to testify. The court will examine whether Thaksin’s so-called imprisonment followed legal procedures. Legal experts are split. Some say hospital custody counts as time served. Others insist he dodged real jail time and should return to prison.
If the court rules against him, Paetongtarn’s position could be at risk. Any move to reimprison Thaksin would shatter her legitimacy. It would also expose the administration to public backlash.
Claims of rigged Senate race allege fake candidacies, bribery and covert control over lawmakers involved
Second—and even more explosive—is the scandal surrounding the June 2024 Senate election. Both the DSI and Election Commission are probing massive fraud. Investigators claim the election was rigged from the start. Their reports describe a coordinated, cash-driven operation involving senior political figures.
On 15 May, legal activist Nattaporn Toprayoon filed a bombshell petition. He asked the Attorney General to refer the case to the Constitutional Court. He invoked Section 49 of the Constitution. It allows legal action against any attempt to overthrow democratic rule.
Nattaporn alleges a political party orchestrated a fake election. Though unnamed, many suspect a ruling coalition party is behind it. According to his petition, the party handpicked Senate candidates across all 20 occupational groups. The scheme focused on small provinces with weak competition.
These candidates were offered ฿15,000 each to apply. They never intended to win. Their goal was to manipulate the outcome. As the process moved to provincial and national levels, more cash flowed. Candidates reportedly received ฿50,000 to reach the provincial round. Another ฿100,000 was paid for those making it to the national level.
Before final voting, many were housed in Bangkok hotels. Surveillance was avoided. They were allegedly coached to mark Sor Wor 3 forms with a special number. When that was banned, they switched to handwritten notes. The Election Commission failed to stop it.
Senate vote fraud scandal widens as DSI traces bribes, AI links and evidence of political control over the process
Nattaporn claims the operation pre-selected 140 senators. These figures were expected to dominate future legislation. Their loyalty would give one party control over the Senate—and by extension, the courts and agency appointments. If true, this would amount to a direct assault on constitutional democracy.
He argues the actions violate Section 49. That clause prohibits using constitutional rights to destroy the system itself. The DSI agrees. It has tracked over 12,000 people, using AI and location data. They are tracing money trails and vote manipulation networks.
On 16 May, the Attorney General’s Office confirmed receipt of the petition. Inspector-General Sakkasem Niyokthai announced a review panel. The group will decide whether to forward the case to the Constitutional Court. Nattaporn may be asked to provide more evidence.
If the court accepts the case, the fallout could be historic. A ruling against the party may lead to its dissolution. MPs could be banned from politics. The coalition would collapse. Thailand could face another political reset.
Rising political distrust follows claims of a Senate plot to destroy democracy from within Parliament
This isn’t Nattaporn’s first attempt. He previously asked the Constitutional Court to annul the entire 2024 Senate election. That case was dismissed. But this time, the focus is narrower—and more dangerous. He’s accusing a party of plotting to destroy the democratic order.
Public frustration is not boiling over as it would be in other countries. Instead, apathy is growing along with trust in politics. This is particularly dangerous for a country scarred by political dysfunction.
Allegations of vote-buying and corruption are shaking that trust further. The Senate, never directly elected by citizens, is certainly now viewed as illegitimate by many. If this scandal deepens, street protests could return.
Justice Minister suspended from roles linked to the expanding Senate criminal investigation by the DSI
Shocking and real evidence of a massive Senate election collusion campaign. 1,200 people being probed by DSI
PM Paetongtarn confirms her father Thaksin will be in court on June 13th. Trade proposals sent to the US
Meanwhile, the economy drags on. Employment is falling. Household budgets are shrinking. Drug abuse in rural areas is spreading fast. Schools remain underfunded. The basic cost of living, including food prices, keeps climbing. For millions of Thais, the political elite’s feuds feel remote and self-serving.
As June nears, the convergence of legal drama, scandal, and especially economic pain may prove too much. Thailand’s ruling coalition stands on shaky ground. Right now, whether it survives the next storm remains to be seen. However, the storm is rising fast.
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Further reading:
Senate allegations growing in strength as powerful investigation gets underway. 7,000 people tracked
