Thai business leaders sound the alarm as the baht surges beyond fundamentals, hammering exporters and tourism. Fears grow it could breach ฿30 to the dollar as the central bank scrambles to curb speculation and soaring capital inflows.
A leading business figure is demanding tighter control of Thailand’s currency against the US dollar, issuing the warning as the baht dipped before the new year but continues to trade at elevated levels, with analysts expecting it to climb even higher. On December 26th, the Bank of Thailand moved to clamp down on foreign inflows above ฿200,000, requiring any transaction exceeding that threshold to be fully justified and documented with the banking and financial sector. This will include gold purchases, which are thought to be central to the problem presently.
The Thai business community is sharpening its warnings about the rising Thai baht. The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai National Shippers’ Council say concern is growing. The Thai Chamber of Commerce also links the strong currency to a decline in economic performance. Moreover, business leaders say the baht has strengthened beyond economic fundamentals.
The concern persists despite a late-year dip. Exporters say the pressure remains. Tourism operators say the outlook is now difficult. Furthermore, businesses warn that 2026 may be a tougher year. They say exports and foreign tourism both face rising strain.
On December 31, Thai National Shippers’ Council President Thanakorn Kasetsuwan addressed the situation. He said the appreciating and volatile baht is hitting producers, exporters, and importers. He also noted that the US dollar remains vital to Thailand’s economy.
Exporters warn baht volatility is rising while the structural exchange rate has become critical
In addition, he said the dollar still anchors exports and competitiveness. The council says the exchange rate must therefore be managed against major currencies. It describes this as structural and critical to national competitiveness.
In recent years, the baht has strengthened faster than regional peers. However, Mr. Thanakorn said this rise does not reflect only real fundamentals. He linked the trend to speculative flows and regulatory gaps. These forces have affected exports, production, and employment. They have also weakened long-term competitiveness.
In some quarters, there are fears that the Thai currency may breach the psychological ฿30 to the greenback. Most business leaders see this as a catastrophe for the country’s economy. Certainly, there also seems to be acute anxiety at the failure so far of the government to control the rise of the baht.
In addition, the fact that the appreciation appears to deviate from normal economic calculations has baffled economists.
Stronger baht than regional peers drives exporter risks as capital inflows rise and volatility grows
The council says the baht is stronger than currencies in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As a result, Thai exporters face higher risks. Meanwhile, rival exporters gain price advantages. In addition, short-term capital inflows remain elevated.
These flows do not generate local jobs or real investment. Yet they push the baht higher and increase volatility. Moreover, hedging costs remain high. Smaller exporters face limited access to risk management tools. Rising foreign exchange hedging costs then become an added burden.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce says the exchange rate should be treated as a key economic pillar. It says the baht should not significantly appreciate beyond regional averages. Furthermore, it calls for tighter control of capital flows unrelated to trade or investment.
It lists potential measures, including minimum holding periods and possible fees on certain inflows. It also calls for broader access to low-cost hedging programs. Exporters, particularly smaller firms, should receive greater support in managing currency exposure.
Business urge tighter controls and cheap hedging to stop baht appreciating beyond peers
The chamber says monetary policy and exchange rate policy should consider the real economy. Interest rate decisions should therefore take account of production, employment, and exports. The group also urges expansion of local currency settlements with trading partners.
Mr. Thanakorn says the government should explain the goal of maintaining a stable and competitive baht. He says this objective is linked to protecting production, exports, and employment. He adds that inappropriate capital flows create structural risk.
Allowing the baht to appreciate too far against regional currencies, he says, weakens the real economy.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand has tightened controls on foreign exchange transactions. On December 26, the central bank introduced new reporting rules. Banks must now require documentation for inward foreign exchange transactions of $200,000 or more.
Central bank orders strict controls on large foreign exchange and gold to curb currency volatility
These measures apply to commercial banks and state-owned financial institutions. Moreover, they cover both purchases and deposits of foreign currency received from abroad.
The central bank says recent months brought high volumes of capital inflows and outflows. These flows increased volatility in the baht. Therefore, banks must confirm that large inflows relate to trade or investment. The measures take effect from December 29.
Under the new rules, documentation must be provided on or before settlement. For transactions linked to gold, banks must request proof of gold sales abroad. They must also request shipping documents within two business days.
Additionally, foreign banknote transactions of $15,000 or more require proof of importation. Deposits into resident foreign currency accounts will follow the same procedures.
Governor Vitai Ratanakorn says Thai banks must now report resident inflows above $200,000. He says this is the first time such reporting has been required. He also says banks must report online gold transactions daily. The central bank says these measures will improve oversight of baht movements.
Baht surges faster than Asia on gold speculation as Bank of Thailand steps up oversight and intervention
He says the baht has strengthened more sharply than other regional currencies. Monthly appreciation against the US dollar reached 4.2%. This exceeded gains in Malaysia, Singapore, and China. In addition, the baht has risen 9.4% against the dollar since the start of 2025.
He says several factors beyond fundamentals contributed to the trend. Gold speculation has played a significant role. Rising global gold prices have increased activity. Recently, online gold trading has accounted for 40% to 50% of foreign exchange transactions. At its peak in August, the figure reached 60%. Therefore, stricter oversight is being introduced.
The central bank and the Ministry of Finance are reviewing gold taxation. Officials are studying whether to impose a special business tax on online gold trading. The Revenue Department is assessing the proposal.
Mr. Vitai says the central bank has intervened aggressively in the market. The goal, he says, is to reduce volatility. However, he says the bank has no target level for the baht. He says the objective is to prevent excessive appreciation that may damage exporters.
Exporters and business leaders say strong baht erodes competitiveness and demand firm action
The Bank of Thailand has also circulated detailed operational guidance to banks. The circular sets documentation standards and verification duties. It covers due diligence and Know Your Customer procedures. It also outlines exceptions and timelines for reporting.
Business groups continue to warn of economic consequences. Exporters say the strong baht reduces price competitiveness. Manufacturers report pressure on production. Importers face uncertainty due to volatile exchange movements. Meanwhile, smaller firms face high hedging costs.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce says Thailand must align the exchange rate with the economic structure. It says speculative inflows should not determine currency conditions. Business leaders say currency management is now a structural issue.
The Thai National Shippers’ Council reiterates that the US dollar remains central to Thailand’s external trade. The exchange rate directly affects margins, revenue, and competitiveness. Therefore, exporters say they require stable and predictable currency conditions.
Business warns long baht rise has built economic strain and urge 2026 action as tourism risks grow
Business organizations say the problem has developed over several years. The baht has appreciated ahead of regional peers. Consequently, the impact has accumulated across the economy. They are urging government action in 2026. They also warn that tourism and exports remain vulnerable to exchange rate shifts.
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The Bank of Thailand says it will continue monitoring inflows, outflows, and gold transactions. It says banks must fully comply with documentation and reporting requirements. It says these measures will support market stability and reduce volatility.
For now, the message from business remains firm. The baht is strong. The pressure is rising. The effects are spreading across exports, production, and employment.
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