Thailand heads into a fresh constitutional crisis as the August 29 court date looms for PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, with three high-stakes family-related court battles set to decide her fate and her father Thaksin’s legal standing, fueling national tension.
Thai politics is hurtling toward another dangerous constitutional crisis as the Shinawatra political dynasty braces for three high-stakes court battles between August 22 and 29. On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court set the date to decide Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fate over her explosive June 15 call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen. She claims she was working to preserve border peace; critics say she disgraced the nation’s 2nd Army commander at the height of a looming military standoff. In the meantime, analysts predict she will be ousted — the second Pheu Thai leader in just two years to be toppled by the court.
The Constitutional Court will rule on August 29 in a case that could remove Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office. The suspended prime minister faces allegations of serious ethical violations over a phone call with Hun Sen.
In the leaked recording, Paetongtarn refers to Hun Sen as “uncle.” She also makes disparaging remarks about a senior Thai army commander. Critics say these comments undermined national dignity and national security.
The controversy began when 36 senators filed a petition with the Constitutional Court. They claimed her conduct breached the constitution and violated ethical standards under Section 170. On July 1, the court voted 9–0 to accept the petition. On the same day, judges voted 7–2 to suspend her as prime minister pending a final decision.
Paetongtarn serves as Culture Minister but cannot perform Prime Ministerial duties amid rising crisis
Since then, she has continued serving as Minister of Culture but cannot perform prime ministerial duties. Meanwhile, political tension has risen sharply.
The court will take sworn testimony from Paetongtarn and the Secretary-General of the National Security Council on August 21. Proceedings will begin at 10:30 a.m. If either fails to appear, the court will consider they have no objection.
After that, closing arguments must be submitted in writing by August 27. Those failing to submit will be deemed to have waived their right.
On August 29, judges will meet at 9:30 a.m. to deliberate. The verdict will be read publicly at 3 p.m. on the third floor of the Constitutional Court. Security is expected to be tight, and attendance will be restricted. However, the decision will be broadcast live nationwide.
This verdict will come just one week after another critical case. On August 22, the Criminal Court will rule in a lèse-majesté case against her father, Thaksin Shinawatra. That case stems from remarks made in a 2015 interview with a South Korean newspaper.
Thaksin faces multiple legal challenges that could affect the Shinawatra family’s political influence
Furthermore, Thaksin faces a third high-profile judgment on September 9. On that date, the Supreme Court will decide whether his six-month stay at Police General Hospital was lawful. He was sentenced to eight years in prison in 2023, later reduced to one year by royal pardon. He was released in February 2024 after serving half of the reduced term.
If the court rules against him, Thaksin could be sent back to prison. That possibility has fueled political speculation about the Shinawatra family’s continued role in Thai politics.
Analysts widely believe Paetongtarn may lose the August 29 case. Within Pheu Thai, two options are being discussed. One is nominating senior figure Chaikasem Nitisiri as the next premier. The other is calling a general election. Party insiders say the election option is unlikely. They cite legal doubts over whether an acting prime minister can dissolve parliament.
If Paetongtarn is removed, Thailand could face another constitutional crisis. Opposition movements might escalate protests and pro-government rallies could mobilise in response. Therefore, security agencies are already preparing contingency plans.
Calls for delay had emerged as political tensions intensified ahead of the court’s ruling on August 29th
Calls for delay have emerged. On Wednesday, Pheu Thai MP Dr. Cherdchai Tantisiri asked the court to postpone the case for six months. He argued that the country is facing both a border threat from Cambodia and serious economic challenges. However, Wednesday’s announcement amounted to a tacit refusal by the court to grant such a delay.
Paetongtarn has defended her call with Hun Sen. She said her tone was intentional, aimed at easing tensions during a sensitive border period. At the time, military units were on heightened alert. Hun Sen, who has led Cambodia for four decades, released the audio just hours later. Many observers believe he acted to gain political leverage.
Public reaction to the leak has been polarising. Anti-government protests have demanded her resignation. Pro-government groups have rallied in her defence, claiming the case is politically motivated.
Since her suspension, Paetongtarn has avoided most direct media contact. On August 13, she attended parliament for the 2026 budget debate but stayed in the reception room. She left via a basement exit after the court announced the verdict date. That move avoided waiting for reporters.
Three major court dates in four weeks raise the stakes for Thailand’s political and economic stability
The political calendar now holds three major court dates within four weeks. August 22 will see the lèse-majesté verdict against Thaksin. August 29 will bring the Constitutional Court decision on Paetongtarn’s future. September 9 will determine whether Thaksin’s hospital stay violated prison rules.
This sequence is unusual in Thai politics. It comes while the country faces economic headwinds and external security concerns. The combination increases the stakes for both government and opposition.
If Paetongtarn survives the August 29 ruling, she will return to office with renewed authority. If she loses, her party must choose a replacement quickly or face national elections. Either outcome could shape Thailand’s political course.
Government sources say preparations are underway for immediate public communication after each ruling. Security forces will be on alert in Bangkok and provincial capitals. Both supporters and opponents are expected to stage demonstrations.
Nation waits as court decision could remove Paetongtarn and alter the Shinawatra political legacy
For now, the country waits. Each day brings the approaching moment when the court will decide whether Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains prime minister or joins the long list of Thai leaders removed by judicial ruling.
The outcome will also influence her father’s legal standing and the Pheu Thai Party’s future direction.
Pheu Thai MP publicly asks the Constitutional Court to defer decision on the PM’s fate, fearing a crisis
If Ms. Paetongtarn is removed, she will be the second Pheu Thai Prime Minister removed by the Constitutional Court in its two years. Her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was removed on August 14, 2024, just a year ago. Significantly, he was the fourth Thai Prime Minister removed by the Constitutional Court in 16 years.
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