Thailand faces a population collapse as birth rates fall to 1.46, the workforce shrinks, pensions strain, and GDP growth slows. Ahead of the 2026 election, political parties roll out cash, healthcare and family support policies to stabilise fertility.
Five Thai political parties have proposed policies to boost the country’s falling birth rate and shrinking population. Last year, cabinet minister Varawut Silpa-archa warned that, at current trends, the population could drop by more than half by 2074, to 30 million. The Pheu Thai Party has yet to table a policy, but its focus is on cash payments and support. By contrast, Eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland offer lifetime tax waivers to parents with two or more children living together. Meanwhile, declining births remain Thailand’s single biggest challenge, compounding chronic structural problems that are holding back the economy.
With less than five weeks to go before the 2026 General Election, Thai political parties are rolling out policy proposals. Meanwhile, voter interest appears muted. Economic growth in 2025 is expected to have reached only 2%, and replicating that in 2026 will be challenging.
The kingdom faces long-term structural economic issues. Household debt remains high. Education standards have fallen. Moreover, the manufacturing sector has not adapted to high-income opportunities. These challenges are compounded by demographic shifts. Thailand’s population is both ageing and declining.
The total fertility rate in Thailand has fallen from 6.4 births per woman in 1964 to 1.46 in 2023. Current projections suggest the rate could fall further to 1.3 by 2040. At present, Thailand’s population is approximately 70 million.
Thailand’s population is ageing rapidly and fertility rates are falling with wide economic impact
By contrast, by 2074, it could shrink to 30 million, less than half its current size. The decline has begun. Ministry reports indicate that from 2022 to 2023, the population fell by 35,000. Over the past four years, the population decreased by more than 500,000. Births now lag deaths by over 100,000 annually, excluding immigration.
Thailand is one of the first large countries to confront a major fertility problem without achieving high-income status. The demographic shift has economic implications. A shrinking workforce affects productivity.
Rising social security costs strain government budgets. As a result, Thailand’s Social Security Fund could face insolvency within a decade if current trends continue. The ageing population has already impacted consumer markets. The number of elderly citizens over 60 exceeds 13 million.
Previous governments, including that of PM Prayut Chan-ocha, attempted to support child-rearing through policy measures. Initiatives have included financial subsidies for families, maternal and child healthcare, and long-term support mechanisms. Although these policies helped slow the population decline, they did not reverse it.
Government and previous initiatives failed to reverse population decline despite support policies
In the lead-up to the 2026 election, five major political parties have proposed new measures aimed at incentivising childbirth. Each party takes a different approach.
Thai Sang Thai Party plans to provide ฿2,000 per month to pregnant women until their child reaches six years old. The Palang Pracharath Party proposes support from four months of pregnancy through delivery at ฿1,500 per month and ฿1,000 per month for children up to six years.
The Democrat Party intends to provide ฿5,000 per month for mothers and children for one year. Furthermore, it will establish a child savings account with monthly deposits of 500 baht until age 18, with bonus payments of ฿10,000 baht every five years if funds are retained.
The People’s Party supports a child allowance of ฿1,200 per month for four consecutive years. Bhumjaithai Party emphasizes access to healthcare through its “1 Village 1 Volunteer Nurse” program, placing nurses in communities to support pregnant women and the elderly.
The Pheu Thai Party has not yet detailed its proposals, but is expected to release a full manifesto shortly. Thai political discourse increasingly frames child-rearing policy as a structural issue, reflecting demographic trends and economic concerns.
Five Thai parties propose varied childcare and family support policies ahead of the 2026 general election
Thailand’s declining birth rate has been linked to changing societal patterns. Marriage rates have fallen among younger, better-educated populations. A 2018 study by Chulalongkorn University’s College of Population Studies showed 9% of women aged 15 to 49 remained single, up from 3.5% in 2001.
Traditionally, Thailand had early marriage patterns, with 23% of women marrying before age 18. Poorer households historically had even higher rates. In 2022, registered marriages rebounded to 305,000 after a pandemic-related decline.
Rising workforce participation among women has contributed to lower fertility. Economic pressures, high costs of raising children, and limited welfare support further affect family planning decisions. Thailand’s total fertility rate of 1.46 in 2023 is second-lowest in Southeast Asia, marginally above Singapore. The replacement rate for a stable population is 2.1 children per woman. The Philippines, by comparison, has a fertility rate of 2.78.
Government and expert bodies have increasingly recognized the urgency of the situation. Last year, Thailand’s then Minister of Social Development and Human Security, Varawut Silpa-archa, warned that without intervention, the population could fall to 30 million by 2074.
Changing marriage patterns and economic pressures are driving Thailand’s fertility rates ever lower
He highlighted the immediate impact of the decline on productivity and the economy, and the long-term burden of an ageing population.
Minister Varawut announced a high-level workshop in Bangkok for March 7, 2024, to address the population crisis. The event, themed “Improving Thai Family Stability to Combat the Population Crisis,” brought together government agencies, private enterprises, NGOs, and international organizations.
Preliminary talks involved the Thailand Development Research Institute and the World Bank. During the workshop, group discussions and brainstorming sessions focused on actionable measures. Outcomes were reported to the Cabinet of the Pheu Thai-led government of Srettha Thavisin in early April 2024. Afterwards, a presentation was made to a United Nations meeting later that month.
The Minister emphasised the workshop’s focus on creating a supportive environment for families. “This is not just about encouraging couples to have children,” he said. “It is about ensuring families feel supported and secure.” He invited all stakeholders to contribute solutions and expertise.
Minister Varawut leads a workshop to create support systems for families and address population decline
Demographic challenges are mirrored internationally. In Europe, countries such as Hungary have implemented financial incentives to encourage childbirth. Hungary introduced a lifetime income tax waiver for women with four children in 2019. These policies have sparked debate and political divisions, particularly in right-wing political discourse.
At a seminar in Budapest in September 2023, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni framed demography as central to national stability.
The United Nations publishes global fertility data. Notably, it is an organisation very much responsible for the collapse in fertility rates. Basically, its emphasis on gender equality and on birth control in developing nations has led to staggering and indeed unintended consequences.
For instance, a 2021 UN report on world population policies noted that 69 countries had policies to lower fertility in 2019, while 55 sought to raise it.
The report identified a rising number of countries attempting to increase birth rates, therefore reflecting global concern about population decline. UN and international policy frameworks certainly now face tension between promoting gender equality, climate goals, and fertility measures.
International outcomes and UN policy pressures illustrate the complex global context of declining fertility
Thailand’s demographic story is undeniably set to define its economy and society over the next two decades. A shrinking population reduces consumer demand and workforce productivity.
Rising elderly populations increase public expenditure on healthcare and social security. Consequently, economic forecasts suggest that GDP growth rates above 5% may be unattainable given the demographic context.
Government projections indicate that by 2074, the population will fall to 30 million without changes to fertility trends. The current rate of decline reflects societal changes, including delayed marriage, fewer children, and urban economic pressures. The decline in fertility has already started affecting social security systems and public finance.
Thailand’s birth rate fell sharply from 6.4 in 1964 to 1.46 in 2023. Social and cultural changes, including urbanization, education, and workforce participation, contributed to this decline. Traditional family structures are under strain.
In addition, economic pressures and imported global trends have shifted societal expectations. Fewer young people are marrying, and childbearing is increasingly delayed or forgone.
Thailand’s shrinking population and urban economic pressures are straining families and public finances
International comparisons highlight the urgency. In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s fertility rate is among the lowest. Other nations in the region maintain higher rates, reflecting different social, economic, and policy environments.
Fertility decline without economic wealth compounds the challenge, as the country lacks a fully developed high-income base to support ageing populations.
Thailand is not alone in facing these challenges. Global population decline is becoming more widespread, particularly in developed and middle-income nations. Ageing populations and shrinking workforces pose economic, social, and political challenges.
As a result, long-term consequences may include increased immigration pressures, economic inequality, and political instability.
Thailand’s policy responses focus on financial support, healthcare access, and long-term savings for children. The five major parties’ proposals vary in scope and structure. Thai Sang Thai and Palang Pracharath emphasize monthly financial allowances linked to pregnancy and early childhood.
Thai policy responses attempt to address declining fertility with financial and healthcare support measures
The Democrat Party focuses on larger monthly support and structured savings accounts for long-term financial security. The People’s Party proposes a consistent child allowance over four years. Bhumjaithai prioritizes healthcare access through community nursing.
Thailand’s policy measures reflect recognition of the demographic crisis and attempts to stabilize population trends. They also align with global efforts by countries such as Hungary to incentivize fertility. Historical experience suggests that financial support and access to healthcare can mitigate, but not reverse, population decline.
Experts emphasize that the demographic challenge has economic, social, and political dimensions. Declining population affects consumer demand, tax revenues, and workforce size. Ageing populations increase the burden on public services. Without intervention, therefore, social security systems may face insolvency, and the economy could experience slower growth.
Thailand’s experience illustrates the broader global challenge of declining fertility. Urbanization, education, and participation of women in the workforce are key drivers. Policy interventions aim to counteract these trends. Financial incentives, healthcare support and family stability programs form the core of current proposals.
Structured financial and healthcare policies aim to stabilize Thai fertility but cannot fully reverse declines
The March 2024 workshop in Bangkok represented a coordinated effort to address these challenges. It sought to combine domestic policy with international expertise. Recommendations from the workshop were brought to Cabinet and subsequent international reporting. Moreover, the Ministry of Education later compiled data for a UN presentation, highlighting Thailand’s engagement with global demographic policy discussions.
Thailand’s population crisis is already impacting social security and economic systems. Consequently, without policy intervention, projections suggest the nation’s population will halve by 2074.
Policy responses aim to raise fertility rates, support young families, and stabilize long-term demographic trends. Financial support, healthcare access, and community programs constitute the primary approaches.
Societal trends indicate delayed marriage, fewer births, and changing family structures. Education, urbanization, and employment patterns influence family planning. Cultural norms around early marriage are shifting, and fewer women are entering marriage at young ages.
Government statistics show a decline in early marriage rates despite a rebound in overall registrations post-pandemic. In the meantime, there is a continued and ominous decrease in fertility.
Delayed marriage and changing family structures continue to drive Thailand’s fertility crisis downward
The economic implications are significant. A smaller workforce may constrain GDP growth. Rising social security costs and public expenditure on healthcare will further affect the fiscal balance. Consumer markets may contract as the population declines, affecting business and trade.
For instance, international experience, such as Hungary’s policies, demonstrates that financial incentives can encourage childbirth. The latest country to introduce radical pro-family policies was Poland. It is now offering a tax waiver for parents of two children or more living as a family in the Eastern European nation.
Thailand’s policy measures for now are merely dabbling. Although they similarly aim to stabilize fertility rates, there is still a reluctance to pursue radical policies such as those seen in Hungary and Poland. Certainly, there is resistance from entrenched women’s networks and academics to such a policy direction.
It may not be expressed openly, but there is an oblique opposition despite the unavoidable consequences that are presently being unleashed.
Thailand hesitates to adopt radical pro-family policies despite lessons from Hungary and Poland
Thailand’s demographic future will be shaped by policy responses, societal trends, and economic conditions. The combination of financial support, healthcare programs, and long-term family stability measures reflects the government’s recognition of the demographic challenge.
International collaboration, expert engagement, and monitoring of outcomes will guide policy adjustments.
The 2026 General Election may further shape demographic policy. Five major parties have announced initiatives targeting family support and fertility incentives. The Pheu Thai Party’s forthcoming manifesto is expected to provide additional policy measures. All parties are framing childbirth and family support as structural and economic issues.
Thailand’s current population projections, combined with a declining fertility rate and ageing population, present long-term challenges. The government is responding with financial support programs, healthcare access initiatives and community-based interventions. International collaboration and expert consultation are central to policy design.
Thailand’s population decline and ageing workforce will define the nation’s economy and policy priorities
Population decline and ageing are global phenomena. Thailand’s experience highlights the economic and social consequences. Policy interventions are underway, targeting young families and children.
Financial incentives, healthcare support, and savings programs form the core strategies. These measures are intended to stabilise demographic trends and support economic and social sustainability.
By 2074, Thailand’s population will fall to 30 million people even based on the current birth rate which is still falling
Thailand’s days of GDP growth in excess of 5% may be a thing of the past as it has grown too old
Thailand- the first large country with a fertility problem yet without wealth to easily fund healthcare for the old
The coming decades will define Thailand’s demographic and economic profile. However, the outlook is not encouraging. Population decline, an ageing workforce, and shrinking consumer markets are projected to affect fiscal stability and social services.
Policy responses aim to address these trends, with emphasis on financial support, healthcare, and long-term family stability. Thailand’s experience may be particularly unique. The country’s strong familial bonds combined with its failure to evolve into a high-income country may produce a distinctive policy response.
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Further reading:
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