Thailand tourism slumps 7.23% but hopes for a big comeback — officials target 36.7m visitors in 2026, up 10%. Yet crime fears, border tensions and a strong baht threaten recovery as Vietnam races ahead, selling a cheaper, safer holiday.
Thailand this week confirmed a 7.23% fall in foreign tourist arrivals from 2024. At the same time, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool is projecting a strong rebound in 2026, targeting a 10.35% rise to 36.7 million arrivals. However, the same forces that dragged numbers down last year still exist. Crime concerns, a regional war with Cambodia and a strengthening baht continue to weigh on demand. Meanwhile, Thailand now faces sharper competition from faster-moving rivals such as Vietnam, which is selling cleaner, safer and better-organised travel experiences. In response, the kingdom is intensifying security campaigns and nationwide crackdowns, haunted by its growing reputation as a hub for crime.
Thailand has entered 2026 with a new foreign tourism benchmark. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has confirmed the target. It now stands at 36.7 million foreign arrivals. The figure represents the official planning goal for the sector.
However, the number follows a weaker year in 2025. Thailand recorded 32.9 million foreign arrivals in that period. The fall equalled a 7.23% decline from 2024. International tourism income also fell. Revenue dropped by 4.7%. Therefore, the industry begins 2026 with firm numerical expectations, yet it also faces a more cautious climate.
During 2025, the tourism sector showed clear exposure to shocks. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported incidents that affected confidence. Crime events, natural disasters and political disruption all had an impact.
Thai Tourism sector suffered shocks and currency shifts with floods and a changing visitor mix
Currency movements added further pressure. Therefore, officials have acknowledged the sensitivity of the sector to external events. The Ministry will continue tracking arrivals and spending. Flight activity and revenue will remain under close observation during 2026.
However, the year 2025 also included one major weather event. Hat Yai in Songkhla province suffered catastrophic flooding. Travel demand weakened during that period. At one point, arrivals were expected to fall by as much as 9.8% for the full year.
Nevertheless, the final weeks of 2025 saw a recovery. Arrivals strengthened as flood conditions improved. Therefore, the annual decline remained at 7.23%, not the higher level first feared.
Meanwhile, the visitor mix changed. A greater proportion of arrivals came from long-distance markets. These tourists stayed longer. However, they spent more cautiously. Mass-market demand from nearer regional markets proved softer. Therefore, the overall mix helped explain the revenue decline of 4.7%.
Top markets Malaysia and China as instability, weather and border tensions curbed demand
Thailand confirmed the leading source markets for 2025. Malaysia remained the largest contributor with 4.5 million visitors. China followed closely at 4.4 million. India ranked third with 2.4 million visitors. Russia supplied 1.8 million tourists. South Korea followed with 1.5 million. However, demand from China did not reach earlier peaks. Travel from that market experienced visible caution through much of the year.
Domestic tourism offered some support. Thai travellers made 202.37 million trips nationwide in 2025. Therefore, domestic activity rose by 2.7%. Revenue from internal travel reached ฿1.16 trillion. This represented a 3.69% increase from 2024. Total tourism earnings reached ฿2.7 trillion when domestic and foreign income were combined.
However, the foreign decline dominated sentiment. The fall of 7.23% marked the first major downturn in years. International travel confidence weakened during the year. High-profile incidents influenced public perception. A Chinese actor was abducted and later rescued. Political instability formed part of the national backdrop.
Severe weather events added further disruption. Meanwhile, regional border tensions also affected conditions. War with Cambodia emerged as a new threat. Therefore, the environment for tourism stayed unsettled.
Stronger baht and new aviation fees raise travel costs as authorities seek financial stability ahead
Currency conditions also shifted. The baht strengthened as gold prices rose. Therefore, Thailand became relatively more expensive for foreign visitors. Spending power declined in some markets. The impact varied by country. However, overall tourist receipts dropped 4.7%.
The government will also introduce new aviation fees in 2026. The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand confirmed the measure. The National Civil Aviation Board approved the increase on December 3, 2025. Passenger service fees will rise on February 1, 2026.
The charge will move from ฿15 to ฿25 per person. The rate will apply to both inbound and outbound international passengers. Airlines will adjust ticket systems accordingly. Moreover, the departure tax will increase. Outbound passengers will pay ฿1,120 instead of ฿790. Therefore, total ticket charges will increase. Airlines will include the fees in final ticket pricing.
Officials said the Civil Aviation Authority needed financial stability. The agency has been running deficits for years. Nonetheless, it holds reserves of around ฿1.4 billion. These funds support over 500 staff and technology operations.
The existing ฿15-baht did not cover regulatory costs. The new ฿25 rate is designed to allow the Authority to break even by 2028. Therefore, the rise forms part of operational funding for aviation regulation and safety oversight.
Rising ticket charges tested by regional competition as aviation and tourism targets remain strict
However, the higher charges come at a competitive moment. Thailand faces strong tourism rivalry from Malaysia and Vietnam. Both countries continue to record high visitor flows. Price remains a key factor across regional travel markets. Therefore, the increase in ticket charges will be closely watched.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s domestic aviation network continued operating through 2025. Airlines experienced fluctuating demand. Load factors weakened during mid-year disruptions. However, traffic recovered later in the year. Hotels also recorded shorter booking windows. Travellers booked closer to departure dates. Nevertheless, the industry remained operational across all regions.
The government has confirmed that monitoring in 2026 will intensify. Arrivals will be measured against the 36.7 million target.
Flight supply and spending will form part of the data review. The Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor, Thapanee Kiatphaibool, confirmed the goals. Domestic travel for 2026 is targeted at 205 million trips. Therefore, the framework for tourism planning remains tightly defined.
Ambitious arrival target for 2026 set despite political tensions, border risks and disaster exposure
The Tourism Ministry has acknowledged that reaching 36.7 million arrivals will require effort. The figure represents a 10.35% increase from 2025. The rise follows the sharp fall in 2025. Therefore, the 2026 target remains demanding.
Border circumstances will continue influencing travel. Tensions involving Cambodia remain unresolved. Political developments could also play a role. However, the Ministry has not revised its target. The focus remains fixed on numerical performance.
Natural disasters remain a continuing risk. The Hat Yai flooding served as a reminder. The event halted travel temporarily. Thousands of travellers changed plans.
Tourism revenue from international arrivals in 2025 reached ฿1.53 trillion. This represented the official 4.71% decline.
Civil aviation authority relies on passenger fees as market mix and currency movements shape results
The Civil Aviation Authority collects fees directly from airlines. Airlines remit payments based on passenger numbers. The Authority does not receive direct national budget funding. The ฿25 charge is therefore its primary income source.
Notably, the outbound passenger tax that will be hiked by 57% in February 2026 is paid to the Ministry of Transport. In brief, that will be an extra ฿390 charge on each foreign tourist as they depart the kingdom.
Officials note that the Authority has legal power to apply four fee types. However, it only collects the entry and exit fees. Other fee categories remain unused to avoid adding passenger costs.
Thai Tourism bosses continue to monitor market changes. Short-haul travel plays a large role. The Tourism Authority expects over 70% of arrivals to come from nearby regions. Nevertheless, long-haul travel remains important for stay duration. Spending patterns differ across regions. The Ministry will analyze both categories through 2026.
Thailand attracts millions but crime, insecurity, corruption and scams weigh on confidence
Despite the setback in 2025, Thailand continues to attract large visitor volumes. Over 32.9 million foreign tourists entered the country that year. The 2026 target has been set higher. The Ministry and Tourism Authority will track progress against the benchmark. International conditions will continue to influence movement.
The tourism sector remains a major contributor to national income. However, the 2025 figures confirm vulnerability to disruption. This is stark news for the kingdom, which has grown to depend on its foreign tourism economic engine. Therefore, officials are maintaining strict reporting and forecasting procedures.
The 36.7 million target stands. Monitoring will continue throughout the year. The Ministry has confirmed the data will be released as available.
Analysts believe the kingdom has an additional problem with perception. In response to fears of kidnapping and disappearances, Thailand has increased security requirements and aggressive crackdowns. At the same time, confusion over visa requirements remains as a result of these efforts.
At the same time, the country’s reputation for corruption is increasingly a problem and aligns with negative perceptions generated by its association with the scam centre industry and fraud.
Growing safety fears and lack of insurance leave tourists exposed to costs after serious accidents
In addition, the country is seen as dangerous, with repeated international stories about road traffic accidents involving tourists, in addition to other misfortunes. In particular, the lack of foreign tourism insurance has led to publicity campaigns for unfortunate travellers who cannot meet medical costs, or distraught families trying to transport family members home.
Thailand enters 2026 with defined objectives, new aviation fees, and continued competition from regional neighbours. Foreign tourism declined 7.23% in 2025. International revenue fell 4.7%. Domestic tourism grew modestly.
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In the meantime, airport charges will rise in February 2026. The baht is still strengthening. Political and border instability persists. The country faces a General Election in February, while some military analysts suggest that a third phase of hostilities with Cambodia is likely.
Nevertheless, the 36.7 million arrivals target has been set. On what basis, we do not know. However, we do know that Thailand remains a favourite destination, although one that has been sending mixed signals. Also significantly, one that saw its arrivals crater by 7.23% in 2025. That performance cannot be dismissed lightly.
Of course, the far-reaching notion is that Thailand’s foreign tourism industry, like its industrial base and overall economy, also needs structural change and investment. That is probably true and is just another challenge to be met by any new Thai government in 2026.
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Further reading:
Another false dawn? Minister announces delayed tourism levy will be instituted under his watch
Tourism Levy will take at least six months to implement even after a cabinet decision to approve it
New Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system coming soon with a ฿300 tourist levy and insurance
Tragic death of a Taiwanese tourist is another wake-up call for the government on insurance cover
