Bangkok opinion poll shows a narrow path remains for a Pheu Thai–People’s Party coalition after September’s Anutin gamble. Support has slid, voters are undecided and power is drifting to Bhumjaithai, raising the prospect of another Anutin-led government next year.
The damage caused by the People’s Party’s disastrous decision to back Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister in September is still being felt. Crucially, it handed Mr Anutin a clear route to entrench power as Thailand’s conservative forces closed ranks around him. However, a Bangkok poll released on Saturday shows there remains a chance of a Pheu Thai–People’s Party coalition if both parties can put the wreckage of the past six months behind them. Failing that, Thailand is likely to see a new Bhumjaithai Party–led government installed next May, possibly with the backing of the former ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Thailand is heading toward a general election on February 8. Voters will choose a new House of Representatives. From that house, a new government is expected in May 2026. As a result, politics across the country has hardened.
Now, the contest is about numbers, leverage, and survival. At this stage, few expect a single-party government. Instead, a coalition is almost certain. In practice, that coalition will likely be led by either Bhumjaithai or the People’s Party.
Since parliament failed to pass constitutional reform, the political mood has changed. As a consequence, attention shifted quickly to leadership decisions. In particular, People’s Party leader Nattapong Ruangpanyawut has faced sustained scrutiny.
Scrutiny intensifies on People’s Party leader after backing Anutin and collapse of constitutional reform
That scrutiny intensified after September. At that time, his party voted to install Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister. Mr Nattapong has rejected claims of poor judgment. He has repeatedly denied political naivety. However, those denials have not settled doubts.
Among political observers, scepticism remains widespread. Many describe Mr Nattapong as technocratic. At the same time, critics say he lacks political instinct. Moreover, his judgment has been questioned since the late-year turmoil. That turbulence followed two linked events. First came the ousting of former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra by the Constitutional Court in August. Then came the decision to back Mr Anutin in September. Together, they reshaped the political field.
Even so, the People’s Party has remained steadfast in its commitment to addressing corruption issues. Over recent months, it has exposed alleged wrongdoing. Those allegations have targeted the current Anutin government. They have also reached back to the previous administration. However, this approach has come at a cost. The party raising accusations also helped create the government. As a result, voters have questioned consistency.
Polls show People’s Party’s support sliding after the September coalition choice with Bhumjaithai
Polling reflects that damage. National Institute of Development Administration surveys show falling support. Nationwide backing for the People’s Party has dropped to about 25 per cent. Analysts link this decline to September’s coalition choice. In particular, voters reacted badly to the party’s shift. Consequently, confidence has weakened.
At the same time, critics have questioned the party’s grip on power. They argue it struggles beyond protest politics. Among those critics is Chuwit Kamolvisit. The former massage parlour tycoon has been blunt. In recent comments, he used a sharp metaphor. He said the party won the lottery. He added that it handed the ticket to someone else.
Public reaction has been raw. Many voters want economic progress. They also want political clarity. Against that backdrop, the September decision caused anger. Instead of backing Pheu Thai, the People’s Party chose Bhumjaithai. As a result, supporters felt misled. Expectations of a different coalition were dashed.
Despite this, the People’s Party and Pheu Thai remain close. Yet they are also rivals. This double relationship has confused voters. On one hand, they share policy ground. On the other hand, they fight for the same base. Consequently, their alignment has produced fallout.
Bangkok polling shows shifting support as undecided voters surge after political shocks
However, recent polling in Bangkok shows movement. On Saturday, a city survey offered mixed signals. The People’s Party led with 32.5 per cent support. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai rose to 18.2 per cent. That marked a recovery for Pheu Thai. Previously, combined party-list support stood at 65 per cent. Now, the combined figure has fallen to 50.7 per cent. Clearly, voters have shifted.
Two shocks drove that slide. First came the controversy involving Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Second came the People’s Party vote for Mr Anutin. Together, these decisions hit both parties. As a result, undecided voters surged. Across polls, uncertainty dominates.
In response, party leaders issued apologies. They promised adjustments. Still, polls show hesitation persists. Many voters remain undecided. This indecision spans regions and income groups. Therefore, the race remains unstable.
Attention has also turned to conservative players. On Saturday, Pheu Thai deputy leader Chousak Sirinil spoke publicly. He warned of intimidation during the campaign. According to him, reports came from multiple constituencies. These reports involved pressure and threats. Consequently, concern over election conduct has grown.
Government control of key ministries raises fears over election interference and Senate vote probes
At the same time, government control has set alarm bells ringing. Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham remain in power. Crucially, they hold key ministries. In recent weeks, the Interior Ministry reassigned officials. Up to 400 provincial officers were moved. That ministry is led by Prime Minister Anutin. As a result, opposition figures questioned timing and intent.
These moves connect in the minds of sceptics to the 2024 Senate election. Critics allege attempts to shape or control that process. Currently, investigations are nearing completion. Both the Election Commission and the DSI are involved. A final EC committee has implicated 229 people. Prime Minister Anutin is included. However, no court action has yet been approved.
Meanwhile, local political networks are shifting. These groups are known as “Big Houses.” Across provinces, many are moving toward Bhumjaithai. Their backing strengthens Mr Anutin’s ground game. Similarly, movement is seen around Kla Tham. That party is led by Deputy Prime Minister Thamanat Prompow. As always, these networks matter in seat-by-seat contests.
The last election still looms large. In that vote, Bhumjaithai won just 3 per cent of the party-list tally. Despite that, it secured 71 seats. That amounted to 14.2 per cent of total votes. Therefore, constituency mechanics again proved decisive. The system rewarded ground strength over national popularity.
Coalition options narrow as Nattapong rules out backing another Bhumjaithai-led government
Some argue the result would differ elsewhere. In many systems, the People’s Party would have led. It would likely have governed with Pheu Thai support. That outcome remains possible, just about.
Over the weekend, Mr Nattapong addressed the issue directly. He said he would lead his party into 2026. He also drew a clear line. He said the party would not back another Bhumjaithai-led government. Instead, it would sit in opposition.
As a result, coalition maths tightened. One option now stands out. Bhumjaithai could lead with Pheu Thai support. Other parties could join. At the same time, tension persists inside the People’s Party. Some members have remained uneasy since September. That decision to back an unlikely Bhumjaithai-led minority government still divides opinion. Consequently, doubts remain over performance. In short, it unsettled many voters.
Fresh polling adds detail. On December 20, the North Bangkok Poll released national findings. The survey ran from December 16 to 19. It included 1,329 respondents. The poll measured party support and prime minister preference. It was led by Assoc Prof Dr Sanit Siriwisitkul.
Most respondents lived in Bangkok and nearby areas. That group made up 63.2 per cent. The central region followed with 21.7 per cent. The East accounted for 4.9 per cent. The South registered 3.2 per cent. The northeast stood at 3 per cent. The north followed with 2.6 per cent. The West accounted for 1.4 per cent.
People’s Party leads preferred government choice but Prime Minister choice remains fragmented in capital
When asked which party should lead the government, the People’s Party ranked first. It received 32.6 per cent support. Meanwhile, 21.6 per cent were undecided or chose others. Pheu Thai followed with 18.2 per cent. Bhumjaithai recorded 8.5 per cent. Democrats stood at 6.6 per cent. Thai Kao Mai followed with 5.4 per cent. Smaller parties trailed further back.
Prime minister preferences were fragmented. A total of 26.3 per cent were undecided or named others. Those included former Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, a public favourite but now banned from politics. Mr Nattapong ranked second with 24.4 per cent. Mr Anutin followed with 14.2 per cent. New Pheu Thai standard bearer Yotchanan Wongsawat stood at 12 per cent. Abhisit Vejjajiva recorded 9.6 per cent.
Other figures attracted smaller shares. Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan received 4.4 per cent. Gen Rangsi Kitiyanasap stood at 3.3 per cent. Gen Prawit Wongsuwan followed with 2.3 per cent. Peerapan Saliratchaviphak had 1.8 per cent. Suchatchawee Suwansawat recorded 1.7 per cent.
The poll also looked at voting habits. For constituency MPs, 50.2 per cent consider both party and candidate. Another 27 per cent focus on the individual. Meanwhile, 22.8 per cent prioritise party label. In combined voting, 49.5 per cent remain undecided. About 40.7 per cent back the same party and candidate. Only 9.8 per cent split their vote.
Pheu Thai warns of intimidation as evidence gathering begins with Election Commission urged to act
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai has sharpened its warnings. There are fears that the election may not be fair. The party has urged the Election Commission to intervene early where required. It cited intimidation and manipulation. Secretary-General Prasert Jantararuangtong said reports came from many provinces. According to him, some incidents involved coercion. He warned these actions could suppress campaigning.
Therefore, he called for tighter oversight. He urged authorities to close enforcement gaps. His remarks pointed to groups accused of past abuses. Though unnamed, the reference was clear.
Investigations into manipulation continue into the Senate election of 2024. There is rising disquiet and evidence linked to this election. Hundreds have been questioned. Progress slowed after September. That slowdown followed Bhumjaithai’s taking control of the government. This case is driving unease about the 2026 poll.
Pheu Thai gathers evidence nationwide and unveils Yotsanan Wongsawat as Prime Ministerial choice
In response, Pheu Thai ordered its nationwide branches to collect evidence. Formal complaints are being prepared.
At the same time, Pheu Thai says it is ready. The party just announced Mr. Yotsanan Wongsawat, the nephew of Thaksin Shinawatra and son of former Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, as its first choice for Prime Minister. This appears to be working with the public.
Chuwit described the People’s Party’s leadership as ‘childish’ and says the party was spoilt by voters
Wednesday may be another red-letter day in Thai politics starting with the People’s Party’s call on PM
It plans to announce 400 constituency candidates. It will also name 100 party-list candidates. The announcement is set for Thursday. Mr Chousak Sirinil also warned about money politics. He said party-hopping driven by cash remains widespread.
As campaigning accelerates, uncertainty dominates. Polls remain volatile. Undecided voters hold the balance. The leadership and makeup of the next coalition government are what is being decided. On February 8, voters will decide the next chapter of Thailand’s unpredictable and sometimes verging on bizarre political story.
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Further reading:
People’s Party on campaign but on guard against potential legal complaints to oversight agencies
Wealthy young People’s Party leader aims to create a technology-driven and efficient welfare state
