Hat Yai and southern Thailand begin a month-long recovery after record floods that halted trade, devastated industries, slashed GDP from 2% to 1.9%, and confirmed 140 deaths, firmly rejecting claims that thousands of people perished in the disaster.
As the South begins what is projected to be a month-long recovery from last week’s flooding disaster, officials are assessing a sharp economic blow estimated at ฿500 billion. On Tuesday, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) warned that national fallout is inevitable, citing at least ฿40 billion in lost output and cutting its GDP projection from 2% to 1.9%. Authorities also flagged severe supply-line damage across key sectors. Meanwhile, Dr. Sakda Alapach of the Ministry of Public Health dismissed claims by former Deputy National Police Chief General Surachate “Big Joke” Hakparn that deaths were in the thousands, confirming 140 fatalities in Hat Yai with only a limited rise presently expected.
The southern floods centred on Hat Yai have caused unprecedented disruption across the region. Consequently, the disaster has forced shutdowns, halted trade routes, and damaged critical industries. It has also placed new pressure on national growth forecasts for 2025. Moreover, early estimates show at least ฿500 billion in regional economic damage. In addition, officials say this is the worst flooding ever recorded in the South.
On Tuesday, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce issued a new assessment. Specifically, it cut its 2025 GDP projection from 2% to 1.9%.
Furthermore, the university linked the downgrade directly to the Hat Yai disaster. It stated that the loss to output alone will reach at least ฿40 billion within a month. Therefore, the impact of the floods is expected to reverberate through both the local and national economy.
Hat Yai flooding causes massive economic loss and puts Thailand’s 2025 growth projection in doubt
UTCC President Thanavath Phonvichai noted that Songkhla’s GDP stands at ฿251 billion. Moreover, he added that ten affected provinces generate about ฿1 trillion annually. Consequently, Songkhla accounts for 60% of expected losses. Indeed, Hat Yai remains the hardest-hit area.
Last week, the city was virtually shut down. Floodwaters not only cut power but also stopped transport and stalled commerce. In addition, shops, markets, and hotels closed for days. Furthermore, thousands of buildings were inundated, and roads remained blocked by deep water.
Additionally, the UTCC warned that tourism faces major cancellations. For instance, SEA Games events have been disrupted. Similarly, the annual meeting of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has also been affected. Therefore, tourism receipts could fall sharply during the peak season.
Furthermore, the UTCC survey of local firms found severe distress. Many businesses reported critical damage and stated that they need immediate cash support. They also warned that new loans alone will not help them recover. In short, the survey describes worsening financial strain across the region.
Agriculture and shrimp farming take heavy losses while trade disruptions worsen in the South
The agriculture sector has also suffered heavy losses. Shrimp farms in Songkhla, Satun and Pattani were hit hard. Ekapoj Yodpinit of the Thai Shrimp Association said mortality rates have surged. He said initial losses are about ฿1 billion.
He added that equipment such as aerators has been destroyed. Production in the affected areas normally accounts for 10% of national output. Total national shrimp production is projected at 270,000 tonnes this year.
The upper South supplies 37% of that figure. The Andaman-side lower South supplies 23%. The East supplies 19%. The Gulf-side lower South supplies 11%, and the Central region 10%. The association is still assessing losses in Songkhla, Phatthalung and Pattani.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce issued a stark report. It said the flow of high-tech components and auto parts has been “paralysed.”
Hat Yai logistics hub halted as exports and industrial supply chains face massive delays
Hat Yai is the main logistics hub for these industries. The ministry said exporters cannot reach key border checkpoints. Roads leading to Malaysia are underwater or impassable. Rail services have stopped. As a result, shipments to Malaysia have dropped to almost zero. Exporters cannot move goods out of the South. Some factories have halted output entirely.
The ministry warned that rival exporters may gain an advantage. Significantly, it noted that Vietnam and Indonesia can supply the same products. Therefore, it warned that overseas buyers may switch suppliers if delays persist. It said regaining lost orders will be difficult.
The Trade Policy and Strategy Office said repeated disruptions weaken confidence. It said timely delivery is critical for regional buyers.
Additionally, Thailand risks losing up to US$400 million per month. Electronic components, auto parts and concentrated latex face the greatest risk. Flooding has also delayed the issuance of certificates of origin required for exports.
Terrain and infrastructure aggravate Hat Yai flooding crisis as households and vehicles suffer damage
The terrain of Hat Yai has worsened the crisis. The city sits in a bowl-shaped area. Floodwaters pooled and blocked access to the Sadao and Padang Besar checkpoints. These checkpoints handle 96% of border trade with Malaysia. Almost all access has been cut off.
The floods have caused severe human losses. Millions have been affected. More than 800,000 households have suffered serious damage. Over 100,000 cars have been destroyed. Officials estimate ฿500 billion in total economic damage.
The disaster follows other national shocks this year. An earthquake in Myanmar in March disrupted supply chains. Border clashes with Cambodia in July killed dozens. The economy shrank 0.6% in the third quarter. The new flooding now threatens the tourism recovery.
The Ministry of Public Health addressed rumours about casualties. It confirmed on Sunday that the official death toll had risen to 179. This marked an increase from 170. However, officials rejected claims circulating online of more than 1,000 deaths.
Deputy Permanent Secretary Dr. Sakda Alapach said the numbers were verified. He said Hat Yai recorded 140 deaths. These include 65 hospital deaths and 75 outside hospitals. Officials have identified 104 bodies. Twenty-three have been released to families.
Ministry rejects exaggerated death claims as Hat Yai begins gradual reopening and cleanup
Dr. Sakda responded to claims from former deputy police commissioner General Surachate Hakparn, or Big Joke. Surachate said the death toll could reach 1,000. Dr. Sakda dismissed this. He said the claim was impossible based on verified data.
He confirmed that authorities prepared seven refrigerated containers early in the crisis. This occurred after an initial surge in recovered bodies. However, he said the pace did not continue. He said most residents have returned to their communities.
He added that cleanup operations may uncover more remains. Yet he said any increase should be small. He said the rise would be in single digits, not hundreds.
The city of Hat Yai is reopening gradually. Water levels have receded in central districts. However, large areas remain damaged. Cleanup crews are removing debris from main roads. Waste has accumulated at temporary collection points.
Electricity has been restored in several zones. Transport operators have not announced full service. Many roads remain unsafe. Officials warned of structural hazards and water contamination.
Trade recovery is slow as businesses and agriculture remain affected across the South
Meanwhile, trade recovery remains slow. Exporters say they cannot move goods until main corridors reopen. The Ministry of Commerce said buyers may shift orders permanently if delays continue. Exporters in electronics and auto parts remain concerned about long-term consequences. Shipment delays could cause contract losses.
Local businesses described extensive damage. Shopkeepers reported submerged stock. Hotels cancelled bookings for December and January. Markets stayed closed throughout the previous week. Supply disruptions affected food, fuel and medicine.
Conditions improved slightly as waters dropped. Insurers have begun assessing claims. Many firms said they depend on state relief due to limited insurance coverage.
Agriculture continues to face major setbacks. Flooding wiped out shrimp ponds and equipment. Mortality rates remain high across affected districts. Farmers expect production losses into next year. Damage to machinery and feed systems will slow recovery. The association continues to gather data on widespread losses.
UTCC revises growth outlook with multiple pressures as Thailand faces economic and trade challenges
The UTCC said its GDP revision reflects multiple pressures. Flood damage, disrupted production and weaker tourism weighed heavily. Reduced tourist arrivals at 32.8 million added to the strain. Lower visitor spending also affected national income. Government spending fell 4% in the third quarter.
For 2026, the UTCC projects growth at 1.6%. It identified additional risks. These include tariff barriers, continued trade tensions, global slowdowns and high household debt. It also warned that delays in the 2027 budget could hurt investment in late 2026. Border tensions with Cambodia have disrupted supply lines and dampened trade.
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Cleanup operations continue across the South. Authorities aim to restore transport networks quickly. They are inspecting damaged structures. They are also monitoring health risks. Many communities still face contaminated water. Waste removal remains slow. Officials expect repairs to take significant time due to the scale of damage.
Nevertheless, the core economic picture is clear. The floods have hit multiple sectors at once. The disaster has weakened supply chains. Certainly, it has reduced output. Furthermore, it has disrupted border trade. They have forced a downgrade in national growth expectations. Officials continue to update casualty figures and economic data. Recovery efforts are underway, but full restoration will take time.
