Thailand’s tourism sector faces fresh turmoil as the Middle East war disrupts flights. Officials warn that up to 600,000 visitors and ฿40bn in revenue could vanish if the conflict lasts eight weeks, after 620 flights were already cancelled and long-haul markets begin to weaken.
Thailand’s already rattled foreign tourism industry, with traffic down 4% since the start of the year, has been dealt a severe blow by the Middle East conflict. After a Monday meeting chaired by Tourism and Sports Minister Atthakorn Sirilathayakorn, officials warned that an eight-week war could cost Thailand 600,000 visitors and strip more than ฿40 billion from already reduced revenue targets. The conflict is generating uncertainty and disrupting global flight networks, particularly links through Gulf aviation hubs. As a result, European and Middle Eastern travel to Thailand has been hit hardest, despite being the only markets showing growth and promise last year.
Officials at Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports on Monday reviewed the growing impact of the Middle East conflict on the country’s vital foreign tourism sector. The meeting was chaired by caretaker Tourism and Sports Minister Atthakorn Sirilathayakorn.
The gathering took place in a conference room on the ninth floor of Building C at the Government Complex in Bangkok. Senior ministry officials attended. In addition, representatives from aviation, immigration and tourism agencies joined the session.
The focus was on immediate disruption to international travel. At the same time, officials examined measures to support tourists affected by flight cancellations and route changes.
Thai tourism ministry reviews Middle East war impact as flight disruption threatens visitor arrivals
Officials began with an overview of tourism performance in early 2026. Between January and February, Thailand received more than 6.54 million foreign visitors. However, the figure marked a slight decline from the same period last year.
Despite the drop, tourism revenue during those two months exceeded 320 billion baht. Meanwhile, broader data covering January 1 to March 7 showed similar trends. Thailand recorded 7,155,449 foreign visitors during that period.
Nevertheless, arrivals were down 4.22% compared with the previous year. Revenue also declined slightly. Foreign tourism generated 351.964 billion baht, representing a fall of 2.72%.
Officials noted that the slowdown began before the conflict escalated. In fact, tourism traffic had already slipped by about 4% during the opening weeks of the year.
However, the outbreak of war in the Middle East quickly intensified pressure on long-haul travel. Consequently, authorities now expect further disruption to visitor arrivals. Officials warned that markets linked to European and Middle Eastern air routes are already weakening.
European and Middle Eastern markets weaken as conflict disrupts long-haul travel routes to Thailand
These markets were essential to Thailand’s foreign tourism industry in 2025 and previously helped offset several losses in short-haul Asian markets.
Flight data presented at the meeting illustrated the immediate disruption. Between February 28 and March 8, airlines cancelled a cumulative 620 flights linked to the situation. Of these, 320 were outbound flights from Thailand.
Meanwhile, 300 inbound flights to the country were also cancelled. These disruptions occurred across several major airports. However, the largest number was recorded at Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thailand’s primary international gateway.
On March 8 alone, authorities recorded 70 cancelled flights by 4:00 pm. Suvarnabhumi Airport accounted for 40 cancellations, split evenly between departures and arrivals. Meanwhile, Phuket Airport reported 22 cancellations.
Krabi Airport recorded five cancellations during the same period. Chiang Mai Airport reported two cancellations, while Don Mueang Airport recorded one. Despite the disruption, authorities reported no tourists stranded at airports at that time. Nevertheless, officials continue to monitor passenger movements closely.
Government forecasts steep visitor losses and revenue declines if the Middle East conflict continues
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports presented a series of impact forecasts during the meeting. These projections examined several possible scenarios depending on the duration of the conflict. Under the first scenario, the crisis lasts for three weeks.
In that case, Thailand would lose approximately 210,973 foreign visitors. Tourism revenue would decline by about 13.167 billion baht during that period.
However, the losses rise quickly if the disruption continues longer. Under a four-week scenario, arrivals could decline by roughly 334,084 visitors. In addition, tourism revenue could fall by approximately 21.531 billion baht. Officials emphasised that losses accelerate as long-haul travel confidence weakens. Therefore, the ministry also examined a worst-case scenario extending to eight weeks.
If the conflict persists for eight weeks, Thailand could lose up to 595,874 foreign visitors. In that case, tourism revenue could decline by about 40.972 billion baht. Officials noted that many of these visitors come from long-haul markets. Consequently, their absence would remove a large share of high-spending travellers. Such losses would significantly weaken the tourism sector’s recovery plans for 2026.
Officials warn oil prices and currency volatility could intensify pressure on long distance tourism
The impact assessment was prepared by the Office of the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Meanwhile, aviation data was supplied by the Ministry of Transport. Officials warned that prolonged instability could trigger wider economic pressures.
For example, rising oil prices could lead to increased airline operating costs. At the same time, currency volatility could affect international travel demand. As a result, long-distance tourism markets could face additional pressure.
Statistics presented at the meeting highlighted the importance of those markets. China remains Thailand’s largest source of tourists in 2026. From January to early March, China sent 1,173,081 visitors to the country. Malaysia ranked second with 677,585 visitors. Russia followed with 558,042 visitors, while India contributed 461,996 visitors.
South Korea ranked fifth with 339,588 visitors. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom sent 263,942 visitors. Germany recorded 261,067 visitors during the same period. France contributed 251,832 visitors. The United States sent 244,612 visitors, while Taiwan recorded 230,985 visitors.
Early March data shows sharp visitor declines from Germany, Russia, UK France and Israel
However, early March data already shows declines in several long-haul markets. Germany recorded the sharpest drop between March 1 and March 7. Arrivals from Germany fell by 7,361 visitors during that week.
Russia followed with a decline of 5,639 visitors. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom recorded a fall of 4,304 visitors. France also declined by 4,174 visitors, while Israel saw a drop of 3,490 visitors. These figures reflect the early effects of disrupted air routes.
During the meeting, officials also reviewed support measures for travellers affected by the conflict. Authorities are coordinating closely with airlines to assist passengers facing cancelled flights. In addition, Tourist Assistance Centres at major airports are providing information and guidance. Staff at these centres help travellers rebook flights or obtain travel updates. As a result, tourists can adjust travel plans more easily.
Immigration authorities are also involved in the response. Tourists unable to leave Thailand on schedule may apply for temporary extensions. Therefore, visitors can remain legally in the country while waiting for new flights. Officials said this measure aims to prevent travellers from facing administrative difficulties during the disruption.
Hotels asked to consider room rate adjustments as stranded tourists face delayed departures
The ministry has also contacted hotel operators across major tourist destinations. Hotels have been asked to consider adjusting room rates for tourists unable to return home on schedule. Officials said this cooperation could ease financial pressure on affected travellers.
At the same time, the measure is intended to maintain confidence in Thailand’s tourism industry.
Beyond tourism logistics, officials also discussed broader economic concerns linked to the conflict. Energy markets are a key issue under review. Reports have emerged from rural areas about independent petrol stations temporarily closing.
In provinces such as Roi Et, some stations reportedly shut down due to supply shortages. Authorities say the situation is being monitored closely.
Energy costs, visa policy changes and political debate add further pressure on the Thai tourism outlook
Rising energy costs have also become a concern for tourism businesses. Restaurant operators and hotel owners have begun voicing fears about higher operating costs. Fuel price increases can quickly influence electricity, transport and food costs. Consequently, business expenses can rise rapidly across the tourism sector. In Thailand, these increases often feed directly into inflation.
Meanwhile, political discussions about tourism policy took place over the weekend. The Bhumjaithai Party held a gathering in Buriram to discuss tourism and the wider economy. Participants considered proposals involving the structure of government ministries. One proposal suggested combining the Tourism Ministry with the Ministry of Culture.
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At the same time, the proposal suggested separating tourism administration from the Ministry of Sports. However, no official decision has yet been announced. There is also an imminent move to reduce the visa waiver period for visitors from 93 countries from 60 days to 30 days.
This proposal has generated a strong and vociferous negative reaction. This is despite it being advocated by certain tourism representative bodies.
For now, authorities continue monitoring the conflict and its impact on travel. Aviation schedules and arrival numbers are being reviewed daily. Officials say the duration of the crisis will determine the scale of the impact. Therefore, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports is preparing further responses if the situation worsens.
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