Thailand exports hit record $35bn in March, powered by a 41.9% US surge as China slips. Growth extends 21 months, but imports jump faster, widening deficits. Tech drives gains despite Middle East collapse and rising global risks.
Thailand reported March export data that defied expectations and confounded many analysts. Notably, exports to China fell by 1.1%, while shipments to the Middle East and Russia collapsed, according to the latest data. Significantly, Thailand recorded a sharp 41.9% surge in exports to the United States. This was driven by a strong emerging tech sector and relief from President Trump’s tariffs following a recent Supreme Court decision. Nonetheless, the figures showed a trade deficit of $3.34 billion. As analysts review the data, it underscores that Thailand’s resilient economy may still overcome deep structural challenges and crises such as the Middle East war.
Thailand’s export surge in March 2026 was driven by strong growth in the United States, while shipments to China slipped into contraction. Specifically, exports to the United States rose by 41.9 per cent, marking 30 consecutive months of growth.
However, exports to China declined by 1.1 per cent, marking the first contraction in four months. This divergence reflected uneven global demand conditions. Nevertheless, overall export performance remained firm and sustained across most markets.
Meanwhile, total exports reached 35,157.1 million US dollars in March, the highest monthly level on record. Moreover, the figure extended export growth to 21 consecutive months. Year-on-year, exports increased by 18.7 per cent.
Record exports surge past $35bn as US demand jumps while China slips, extending growth streak
In addition, excluding oil-related products, gold, and strategic materials, growth reached 19.3 per cent. At the same time, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office confirmed the record performance, stating it was the strongest monthly export value recorded.
However, imports rose faster than exports during the same period. In March, imports totalled 38,496.6 million US dollars, increasing by 35.7 per cent year-on-year. Consequently, the trade balance recorded a deficit of 3,339.5 million US dollars.
For the first three months of 2026, exports totalled 96,169.9 million US dollars, rising by 17.6 per cent. Meanwhile, imports reached 105,646.4 million US dollars, increasing by 32.4 per cent. As a result, the trade deficit widened to 9,476.6 million US dollars.
In baht terms, exports in March totalled 1,087,460 million baht, reflecting a 9.7 per cent increase. Meanwhile, imports reached 1,206,111 million baht, rising by 25.6 per cent. Therefore, the trade deficit stood at 118,652 million baht. For the first quarter, exports totalled 2,980,771 million baht, increasing by 7.8 per cent.
Imports surge faster than exports, widening trade deficit despite sustained external demand
In contrast, imports reached 3,317,289 million baht, rising by 21.4 per cent. Consequently, the trade deficit reached 336,518 million baht. The widening deficit reflected stronger import demand and higher input costs, even as exports maintained steady expansion.
At the same time, officials reported continued growth despite structural pressures and external risks. In particular, unrest in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping routes and logistics systems.
As a result, exports to the Middle East contracted sharply, falling by 57.1 per cent. Moreover, this marked four consecutive months of contraction in that region. Nevertheless, exports continued to expand across most major and secondary markets.
Industrial goods remained the main driver of export growth. In March, industrial exports expanded by 21.4 per cent, marking the 24th consecutive month of growth. In particular, computers, equipment, and components increased by 34.2 per cent, supported by demand in the United States, Singapore, and Malaysia.
Industrial exports power growth with strong gains in tech, machinery and electronics markets
Meanwhile, mobile phones and related components surged by 166.6 per cent, marking 10 consecutive months of growth. In addition, demand was driven by the United States, Singapore, and Mexico.
Similarly, gems and jewellery, excluding gold, rose by 86.4 per cent after contracting in the previous month. Growth was recorded in India, Germany, and Japan. At the same time, machinery and components increased by 16.6 per cent, while iron and steel products rose by 35.9 percent.
Furthermore, transformers and related components continued to expand across multiple markets. Overall, industrial exports recorded strong growth across key destinations, reinforcing their role as the primary engine of export expansion.
However, several industrial categories recorded declines. Automobiles, equipment, and components fell by 3.5 per cent, marking the first contraction in four months. Likewise, plastic pellets declined by 13.0 per cent, marking nine consecutive months of contraction.
Meanwhile, cosmetics and skincare products fell by 4.3 per cent, marking two consecutive months of decline. In addition, wood and wood products declined by 5.3 per cent, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction. Nevertheless, the broader industrial sector continued to expand strongly.
Agricultural exports show mixed recovery as agro-industrial goods rise, but raw products lag
Agricultural and agro-industrial exports showed mixed performance. Overall, the category expanded by 1.1 per cent year-on-year, returning to growth after three months of contraction.
However, agricultural products alone contracted by 10.7 per cent, marking eight consecutive months of decline. In contrast, agro-industrial products expanded by 14.0 per cent, returning to growth after three months.
Several products recorded steady growth. For instance, pet food exports rose by 4.0 per cent, marking seven consecutive months of expansion, driven by demand in Japan, Australia, and Malaysia.
Similarly, processed chicken increased by 4.9 per cent, marking four consecutive months of growth. Meanwhile, sugar exports rose by 15.8 per cent, returning to growth after five months.
In addition, vegetable and animal fats and oils surged by 250.8 per cent, marking eight consecutive months of growth. At the same time, fresh durian exports increased by 14.5 per cent, marking four consecutive months of expansion.
Jasmine rice rose by 3.8 per cent, marking three consecutive months of growth. Furthermore, spices and herbs continued to expand across multiple markets. Sales of agricultural products expanded by 29.9 per cent overall, marking 23 consecutive months of growth in markets such as Pakistan, the Netherlands, and India.
Mangosteen surges while rubber, cassava and meat exports decline sharply across key markets
Fresh mangosteen recorded the strongest increase among agricultural products. Specifically, exports surged by 491.1 per cent, marking four consecutive months of growth.
Expansion was recorded in markets including China, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. However, several agricultural products continued to decline. Rubber exports fell by 21.6 per cent, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction.
Meanwhile, canned and processed seafood declined by 2.0 per cent, marking three consecutive months of contraction. Cassava products fell by 17.2 per cent, marking nine consecutive months of decline.
Beverages declined by 5.9 per cent, marking two consecutive months of contraction. In addition, fresh and frozen chicken exports dropped by 30.0 per cent, marking three consecutive months of decline. Exports of meat and meat products also declined by 22.8 per cent, marking the 12th consecutive month of contraction.
Major markets expand strongly, led by the US, EU and ASEAN, despite Chinese and Russian weakness
Overall, agricultural and agro-industrial exports declined by 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. However, export performance across global markets remained broadly positive. Major markets expanded by 20.2 per cent overall, driven by strong demand in key economies.
Exports to the United States led growth, supported by demand for computers, telecommunications equipment, and aircraft components. Meanwhile, exports to Japan rose by 9.1 per cent, marking four consecutive months of expansion.
Similarly, exports to the European Union increased by 21.9 per cent, marking seven consecutive months of growth, driven by computers, steel products, and jewellery.
Exports to ASEAN’s five major economies rose by 25.0 per cent, marking 10 consecutive months of growth. Key products included computers, telecommunications equipment, and gems and jewellery.
However, exports to China declined, reflecting weakness in key product categories. Likewise, exports to CLMV markets fell by 0.1 per cent, marking seven consecutive months of contraction.
Secondary markets surge with South Asia and Australia gains, while the Middle East and Russia fall sharply
Secondary markets recorded strong expansion. Overall, these markets grew by 21.6 per cent. Exports to South Asia surged by 123.3 per cent, returning to growth after a previous contraction.
Growth was driven by gems and jewellery, vegetable oils, and plastic products. Meanwhile, exports to Australia rose by 56.2 per cent, marking five consecutive months of growth, supported by automobiles and steel products.
Exports to Latin America increased by 26.2 per cent, marking four consecutive months of growth. Similarly, exports to Africa rose by 5.0 per cent, marking two consecutive months of expansion.
Exports to the United Kingdom increased by 14.6 per cent, marking three consecutive months of growth.
However, some regions recorded sharp declines. Exports to the Middle East fell by 57.1 per cent, marking four consecutive months of contraction due to logistics disruptions. Similarly, exports to Russia and CIS countries declined by 38.9 per cent, reflecting continued weakness in those markets.
Risks mount from Hormuz unrest, energy costs and US trade measures despite a strong outlook
Officials cited unrest in the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor affecting trade flows. Specifically, disruptions to shipping routes affected logistics and transportation systems.
As a result, export activity slowed in affected regions. At the same time, rising energy costs remain a concern, as higher costs may affect production and trade flows.
Furthermore, potential new trade measures from the United States are being monitored. These measures could affect export performance in the coming period. Nevertheless, exports are expected to remain on a positive trajectory in 2026.
In particular, demand for technology products continues to drive growth. Electronics and electrical appliances remain key contributors, supported by demand for artificial intelligence technologies and data centre infrastructure.
In addition, high-potential agricultural products such as durian, mangosteen, pet food, and processed chicken continue to expand in global markets.
Government monitors risks and pushes new markets as exports extend record growth streak
The Ministry of Commerce continues to monitor developments closely. Meanwhile, coordination with public and private sector agencies remains ongoing. Efforts are focused on maintaining export momentum and expanding into new markets.
First quarter data confirmed sustained expansion across key sectors. However, performance varied across regions and product categories. Industrial goods remained the dominant contributor, while technology-related exports showed the strongest gains.
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Agricultural exports remained uneven, with strong growth in selected products offset by continued declines in others. Meanwhile, imports continued to outpace exports, resulting in a widening trade deficit.
Officials stated that external factors will remain critical. These include geopolitical developments, energy costs, and trade policy changes. The government continues to focus on sustaining export growth and strengthening market access.
March 2026 marked a record-breaking month for Thailand’s export sector. Moreover, it confirmed sustained expansion despite global volatility, structural pressures, and ongoing disruptions in key trade routes.
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