Thaksin’s Pheu Thai won the most seats, but Bhumjaithai gained ground, solidifying its influence. The People’s Party struggled despite leading in polls, exposing its weak grassroots. With tensions rising, all major parties now brace for a fierce 2027 general election.
The results of Thailand’s local elections in 47 provinces on Saturday are mixed news for the ruling Pheu Thai Party. Certainly, it is good news for the up-and-coming Bhumjaithai Party and nothing short of a cataclysmic outcome for the People’s Party. The party, which consistently leads in the national opinion polls, is losing on the ground. In short, it lacks strong characters and local networks that are essential in Thai politics. The outcome has cemented the political power of Thaksin Shinawatra, despite his party losing key provinces such as Chiang Rai, Sisaket and Lamphun. In addition, it will certainly contribute to growing distrust and rivalry between the two main parties in the government. The Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai Party will certainly be reviewing the results and preparing for the General Election in 2027.
The results of Saturday’s Provincial Administrative Organisation elections in Thailand threw some mixed messages for the country’s political parties.
Certainly, the elections confirm the resilient political power of Thaksin Shinawatra, who was the main campaigner for the Pheu Thai Party, particularly in northern provinces.
At length, Pheu Thai emerged with the most Presidents, securing 18 out of the 47 provinces that voted. Nonetheless, the news that the Bhumjaithai Party won 12 and solidified its growing influence in southern provinces is undoubtedly a fly in the ointment for the Shinawatra family.
Thaksin’s attacks on conservatives and Bhumjaithai’s senate strategy create tensions for Pheu Thai
Certainly, on the campaign trail, Mr. Thaksin was seen to lash out several times at the conservative and more nationalist upstart party. Indeed, it is no longer a secret that both parties are at loggerheads. A range of issues, including the cutting off of electricity by the Ministry of the Interior to Myanmar scam centres and the Gambling Act, loom large.
At the same time, the success the Bhumjaithai Party showed in stealthily moving to control the Senate or Upper House last year is becoming a political headache for the ruling party.
The Bhumjaithai Party won 12 Provincial Administrative Organisation Presidencies in Saturday’s vote.
In addition, new polling from Bangkok shows the party gaining ground. It currently has 14.9% in North Bangkok, whereas the Pheu Thai Party, at 16.4%, is not too far ahead. The People’s Party enjoys 20.3%. However, this will be disappointing news for its leadership.
Certainly, Saturday’s election was bad news all around for the People’s Party under leader Nattapong Ruangpanyawut. This comes despite the 37-year-old showing in national opinion polls as Thailand’s favoured person for the role of Prime Minister.
Grassroots politics and patronage networks continue to shape electoral results in Thailand
Certainly, these local elections show the power of both grassroots party politics and, at the same time, Big House politics in Thailand.
In short, local networks and patronage play a huge part in electoral dynamics. For instance, it explains how the Bhumjaithai Party achieved 55 seats out of a 500-seat House of Representatives in 2023 with only 2.99% of the popular vote.
These forces were at play on Saturday.
In particular, they saw 18 provinces won by Pheu Thai, 12 by the Bhumjaithai Party, and 6 by independents. Notably, one of these was taken by Ms. S.C. Joy, the wife of murdered authority member Mr. Chaimes Sitthisanitphong, also known as S.J. Tor.
Previously, Mr. Chaimes had sought Mr. Thaksin’s support in having his wife run for election. However, he was murdered by a gang associated with the local ‘Big House’ in private on Wednesday, December 11.
Ms. S.C. Joy subsequently ran as an independent.
Democrat Party and minor parties struggle while the People’s Party suffers significant setbacks
The other provincial leadership positions were taken by the Democrat Party, which secured four positions. It was followed by both the Chartthaipattana and Prachachat Parties with two each.
After that, the Palang Pracharat Party and the United Thai Nation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) Party each had a provincial victory. Finally, the People’s Party only succeeded in winning the presidency of one Provincial Administrative Organisation in Lamphun in upper northern Thailand.
Consequently, it saw its General Election showing in provinces such as Nonthaburi, Phuket, and Samut Prakan decisively fade away—similarly, in many other provinces where it won a significant number of MPs in 2023.
Afterwards, Pheu Thai Party bigwigs were particularly frank about the party’s performance. Minister of Tourism and Sports Surawong Thienthong acknowledged that Pheu Thai failed to win Lamphun and Chiang Rai provinces. The top minister, who is influential within the parliamentary ranks, said the party did not do its homework.
However, he underlined that perhaps the party would have fared worse without the campaigning of Thaksin Shinawatra.
Internal divisions and growing bureaucracy weaken Pheu Thai’s ability to deliver on promises
This was addressed by Government House advisor Nattawut Saikuar. Mr. Nattawut thought the divisions in the party in Sisaket province cost them victory. He pointed out that being out of government for so long had also stagnated the party.
For instance, he acknowledged that the achievements of the government are limited. He put this down to the country’s altered political landscape, with increased oversight of the powers that ministers have. He described the government as persistently pinned down by excessive regulation and a drastically increased bureaucracy.
Significantly, Mr. Nattawut made no secret of the economy’s weakness at this time. Indeed, he said it was plunging.
Thaksin’s influence remains strong as Pheu Thai fights to regain public trust and political ground
However, he too was of the view that Mr. Thaksin had once again proven his political power. Certainly, this may be true, given the anger aroused in the electorate in August 2023 when Pheu Thai joined hands with former government and conservative parties to form a government.
Claims of a death warrant or contract taken out on a political murder victim’s life made by anti-corruption activist
Thaksin urges Sisaket voters to back Pheu Thai as it fixes economic foundations. Calls for AI in schools
Mr. Thaksin’s campaigning over the last few weeks certainly bolstered support for Pheu Thai. In addition, it has deepened fissures within the coalition and stole a march on the People’s Party. That party and its young leader must now go back to the drawing board.
The lesson is clear: public opinion and trends do not win elections in Thailand. It takes organization on the ground and people-to-people confidence through big characters.
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Further reading:
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Thaksin, Pheu Thai six-pronged complaint being reviewed by the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG)
Ko Kood at the centre of Thailand’s rising political storm waged against Paetongtarn’s government
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Firebrand Jatuporn launches crusade against Thaksin Shinawatra and present government in Bangkok
