S&P retains Thailand’s BBB+ rating with a stable outlook, forecasting 2.3% growth in 2025. Despite global trade risks and Moody’s downgrade, strong tourism, rising income per capita, solid reserves, and strategic government spending supports economic resilience.
Good news came on Monday for the embattled government of Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. S&P Global Ratings maintained Thailand’s BBB+ credit rating with a stable outlook. This contrasts with Moody’s decision in late April to downgrade Thailand’s outlook to negative, although Moody’s kept the country’s Baa1 rating unchanged. S&P expects Thailand’s economy to grow by 2.3% this year. It also views the foreign tourism sector as steadily rebounding, despite a decline in visitor numbers after February 2025. The overall situation appears to be improving. At the same time, S&P highlights Thailand’s strong financial fundamentals, including robust foreign reserves and a healthy current account surplus. These factors underpin confidence in the country’s economic resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties.
S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a Stable Outlook. The decision, announced on June 2, 2025, reflects continued confidence in Thailand’s economic management despite global risks.
Patchara Anantasilpa, Director-General of the Public Debt Management Office, confirmed the update and outlined key projections. S&P expects Thailand’s economy to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. Average real GDP growth from 2025 to 2028 is forecast at 2.8%.
This modest pace reflects both domestic efforts and external pressures. Crucially, US protectionist trade policies continue to weigh on global demand.
Thailand’s economy shows steady growth despite global trade tensions and external pressures in 2025 and 2026
Even so, Thailand’s economy retains strength in several areas. In early 2025, stimulus measures supported steady momentum. However, the second half of the year may see pressure from reduced export competitiveness and global uncertainty. Still, some sectors show strong resilience.
Tourism remains a key driver. Foreign arrivals reached 35.5 million in 2024, a 26% jump from 2023. That surge signalled a strong recovery. Yet in the first quarter of 2025, growth slowed by 1.9% year-on-year. Despite this dip, S&P expects the outlook to improve again in later quarters.
Government policies are expected to support that rebound. Measures like the extension of visa exemption periods should help keep tourist arrivals strong. The tourism sector also, S&P sees, somewhat counterintuitively, as benefiting from the strengthening baht. In short, this boosts domestic spending power and raises income per capita.
Income per capita growth and infrastructure projects strengthen the economy and improve competitiveness
Thailand’s income per capita is forecast to rise from $7,500 in 2024 to $8,100 in 2025. This improvement helps maintain household resilience despite rising costs and international shocks. Moreover, increased spending from tourists contributes directly to GDP.
Infrastructure investment remains another key factor in S&P’s analysis. The government is expected to continue supporting major projects aligned with the national strategic plan. These include the Eastern Economic Corridor and upgrades to transport networks nationwide.
State enterprise spending and public-private partnerships will be central to driving these developments. S&P notes that such investments will strengthen Thailand’s future competitiveness. Roads, rail lines, and logistics hubs are being expanded to support trade and regional connectivity.
Fiscal policy is also playing a crucial role. The government is using deficit spending to sustain the recovery. S&P estimates that net general government debt will rise to 3.3% of GDP in 2025. This increase reflects ongoing efforts to stimulate growth.
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In addition, the government is deploying resources from the Digital Wallet scheme. The ฿157-billion initiative may fund investments that can counteract global trade disruptions. Projects under this program are expected to support exporters and affected businesses.
While the fiscal deficit is expanding, Thailand’s external position remains solid. S&P expects the country to maintain a current account surplus averaging 1.6% between 2024 and 2028. This surplus will help cushion the economy from external volatility.
Thailand also holds a high level of international reserves. That reserve buffer supports exchange rate stability and reduces risks during capital flow volatility. According to S&P, these factors give the country more room to manoeuvre under stress.
Despite near-term headwinds, S&P sees no major shift in Thailand’s credit profile. The Stable Outlook reflects balanced risks. While global conditions remain turbulent, domestic policies appear focused and deliberate.
Strong fiscal management and economic diversity underpin Thailand’s creditworthiness despite trade risks
Thailand’s capacity to manage debt, control inflation, and promote investment continues to underpin its creditworthiness. Moreover, key institutions are maintaining policy continuity and economic discipline. These strengths support investor confidence.
Although external risks persist, especially from shifting US trade policies, Thailand’s diversified economy offers protection. Tourism, exports, public investment, and domestic consumption together provide multiple growth engines. This broad base reduces dependence on any single sector.
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In summary, Thailand’s BBB+ rating stands on a foundation of cautious fiscal policy, steady growth and sound external finances. S&P sees continued resilience, though challenges remain. The government’s current strategies aim to shield the economy from global headwinds and position it for long-term competitiveness.
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