Thailand election on a knife-edge as Matichon poll shows a three-party race, Pheu Thai surging, People’s Party narrowly ahead, and Bhumjaithai tipped to outperform weak polling through powerful local networks on February 8.
A large Matichon poll published on Saturday shows 73.7% support for either the People’s Party or the Pheu Thai Party at constituency level ahead of the February 8 election. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ranked only fourth among voters for the post he currently holds, highlighting the disconnect between leadership visibility and voter preference. Nonetheless, analysts say the race remains tight despite polls skewed toward pro-democracy voters, pointing to a looming contest between the Bhumjaithai Party, polling just 7.2% at constituency level, and the People’s Party on 37.9%, over which will secure the most parliamentary seats, a contrast that highlights the enduring power of local networks in Thai politics. Notably, support for drafting a new constitution appears set to pass with approval at 83.2%.
A large public opinion poll conducted by Thai media group Matichon shows a highly competitive general election on February 8. The poll was published on Saturday. Analysts confirm a three-party contest. The People’s Party, Pheu Thai Party, and Bhumjaithai Party dominate the field. Nonetheless, this poll shows significantly lower support for the ruling Bhumjaithai Party, particularly for Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul for the top job.
However, analysts reviewing the general election are factoring in the dynamics on the ground at constituency level. Accordingly, the race shows no clear frontrunner. Instead, support is tightly clustered. As a result, constituency outcomes will be decisive. Turnout will also play a critical role.
Certainly, the poll shows a massive 73.7 per cent combined preference for the People’s Party and Pheu Thai Party when measured at constituency level. The fact that analysts still see a tight race shows that in Thai politics, opinion and popularity do not necessarily translate into votes at the ballot box.
Poll shows Pheu Thai surge narrows gap with People’s Party as Prime Minister race tightens nationally
Notably, the poll reveals stronger-than-expected support for the Pheu Thai Party. In particular, its prime ministerial nominee, Dr Yotsanan Wongsawat, has gained momentum. His profile has risen during the campaign period. Consequently, Pheu Thai has narrowed the gap with the People’s Party.
Meanwhile, the People’s Party remains marginally ahead in headline measures. However, its lead is slim. Therefore, the contest remains volatile.
In the prime ministerial preference question, Mr Nattapong Ruangpanyawut ranked first. He secured 35.2 per cent support. By contrast, Dr Yotsanan followed closely with 32 per cent. The difference stood at just over three percentage points.
Significantly, Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan placed third with 5.4 per cent. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ranked fourth. He received 4.5 per cent support. His showing trailed several opposition figures.
Lower ranked candidates trail leaders as undecided voters and minor parties retain measurable influence
Further down the list, Mr Suriya Jungrungruangkit recorded 3.8 per cent. Similarly, Mr Abhisit Vejjajiva gained 3.5 per cent. Mr Jatuporn Buruspat and Mr Peerapan Salirathavipak followed with 2.5 and 2.4 per cent. Meanwhile, undecided respondents accounted for 2.4 per cent. Others made up 8.4 per cent.
The poll was conducted between January 9 and January 15. It used QR code responses. Both Matichon and Daily News platforms hosted the survey. In total, 28,002 responses were recorded. As such, the sample size was substantial.
However, analysts cautioned about respondent composition. Specifically, the survey skewed toward politically engaged urban voters. Therefore, pro-democracy parties may be overrepresented.
This second Matichon–Daily News poll reinforced earlier findings. Again, the People’s Party ranked first overall. Pheu Thai followed closely behind. Bhumjaithai placed third. Consequently, analysts describe a stable three-horse race.
When asked about party-list voting, respondents showed clearer preferences. The People’s Party led decisively. It received 41.1 per cent support. In contrast, Pheu Thai followed with 28 per cent. Bhumjaithai trailed at 7.2 per cent.
Party list results confirm People’s Party dominance while mid-sized parties struggle for relevance
Further results showed Thai Sang Thai with 5.3 per cent. Ruam Thai Sang Chart recorded 4.6 per cent. The Democrat Party followed with 3.8 per cent. Smaller parties received single-digit support. Undecided voters stood at 1.7 per cent.
When asked about motivations, party policy dominated responses. Specifically, 55.9 per cent cited policy as decisive. Next, 19.4 per cent cited liking the prime ministerial candidate. Meanwhile, 17.3 per cent pointed to trust in the party leader. Candidate qualifications ranked lower at 5.4 per cent.
Constituency voting results told a different story. The People’s Party led with 37.9 per cent. Pheu Thai followed closely with 35.8 per cent. Therefore, the margin remained narrow. Thai Sang Thai ranked third with 5.3 per cent. Bhumjaithai followed with 4.7 per cent. The Democrat Party placed fifth with 3.5 per cent. Undecided voters accounted for 2.6 per cent.
Voters prioritise policy over personalities as economic issues dominate campaign calculations
Once again, party policy dominated voter reasoning. In constituency races, 52.3 per cent cited policy. Meanwhile, 17.6 per cent cited candidate qualifications. Confidence in the party leader followed at 15.4 per cent. Preference for the prime ministerial nominee accounted for 13 per cent.
Policy priorities showed a clear pattern. Economic policy ranked first with 58.4 per cent. Anti-corruption and scam prevention followed at 31.6 per cent. Security and border issues ranked third at 6.6 per cent.
The poll also measured civic participation. Notably, 96.4 per cent said they would vote in the February 8 referendum. Only 3.6 per cent said they would not. Furthermore, 83.2 per cent approved drafting a new constitution. Disapproval stood at 10.6 per cent.
Despite weak polling numbers, analysts project strong results for Bhumjaithai. In particular, experts cite the party’s nationwide networks. These networks operate beyond polling reach. As a result, projections diverge from survey data.
Although Bhumjaithai recorded just 7.2 per cent in party-list voting, experts remain confident. Similarly, its constituency polling figure stood at only 4.7 per cent. Nevertheless, analysts point to past elections.
In both 2019 and 2023, Bhumjaithai outperformed polls. This pattern is cited again. This time, analysts add two factors. First, the party currently holds power. Second, it reportedly has substantial financial backing.
Analysts project Bhumjaithai surge despite weak polling as local networks outweigh national popularity
As a result, experts estimate Bhumjaithai could secure nearly 18 per cent nationwide. This figure would nearly triple its polling share. Consequently, projections place its seat count near 150.
Dr Sitthithorn Thananithichot of Chulalongkorn University analysed the results. He said the People’s Party still leads overall. However, he highlighted Bangkok as a battleground. There, constituency results show near parity with Pheu Thai.
According to Dr Sitthithorn, spatial data supports this view. He said the People’s Party may not retain all 32 Bangkok seats. Therefore, losses appear likely.
Elsewhere, urban and industrial areas favour the People’s Party. Provinces such as Samut Prakan remain strongholds. However, outer provinces present challenges. Influential local families remain active.
Dr Sitthithorn added that voter behaviour is shifting. Increasingly, voters separate party and candidate choices. Unlike past elections, straight-ticket voting may decline. Therefore, split ballots are expected.
Competing academic forecasts underline uncertainty as seat projections diverge sharply ahead of polling day
He projected the People’s Party could secure about 45 party-list seats. However, he expects constituency seats to fall. Specifically, he projected a decline from 112 to about 90. This would produce roughly 135 total MPs.
For Bhumjaithai, Dr Sitthithorn projected 18 party-list seats. Meanwhile, he projected about 140 constituency seats. Together, this yields 158 MPs. This would make Bhumjaithai the largest party.
For Pheu Thai, he projected 22 party-list seats. He expects losses of around 20 constituencies. As a result, Pheu Thai could secure about 114 MPs.
Dr Purawich Wattanasuk of Thammasat University offered a contrasting assessment. He said the poll does not capture the full electorate. Many voters have not yet responded. Therefore, outcomes remain fluid.
Dr Purawich emphasised the narrow margins. He said the race remains undecided. In Bangkok, he expects intense competition between the People’s Party and Pheu Thai.
Late campaign shifts likely as analysts warn limited vote splitting could change outcomes before Election
He also noted limited vote splitting so far. However, he said the final weeks often bring shifts. He estimated a 50 per cent chance of late movement. Therefore, results could still change.
He noted that the People’s Party has relied heavily on party-list success. Some constituency candidates have underperformed historically. Still, he estimated up to 40 party-list seats remain possible.
Repeat of 2023. People’s Party begins to surge in top nationwide poll with 41.36% support. Pheu Thai 2nd
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Regarding Pheu Thai, Dr Purawich cited Dr Yotsanan’s popularity. He said it has boosted constituency campaigns. As a result, Pheu Thai remains competitive locally. He expects more than 20 party-list seats.
Finally, Dr Purawich challenged higher projections for Bhumjaithai. He estimated 120 to 140 MPs. He doubts all strong candidates will prevail. Meanwhile, he projected 150 to 160 MPs for the People’s Party. He estimated 90 to 110 MPs for Pheu Thai.
Despite differing forecasts, analysts agree on one point. The election remains open. The top three parties are closely matched. Ultimately, February 8 will decide the outcome. Of course, after that will come inevitable legal challenges and months of political horse-trading. A new government is not expected until May 2026.
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