People’s Party surges as Thailand heads for the Feb 8 snap election. New Thai Rath poll puts the pro-democracy bloc at 61% support, with Pheu Thai slipping and Bhumjaithai holding third on local power. A big decision confronts Thailand. Uncertainty remains.
With less than five weeks until the February 8 General Election, a major Thai media poll shows the pro-democracy People’s Party and Pheu Thai still commanding 61.17% support. The survey, weighted toward older and Bangkok voters, shows little change at the top despite the upheavals of 2025 and the Thai-Cambodian war. The race is shaping into a showdown between a potential People’s Party–Pheu Thai alliance and a conservative bloc led by Bhumjaithai and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. The final result will hinge on constituency battles, but the poll points to a sharper and more determined electorate.
Thailand goes to the polls on February 8th in a snap General Election. Thai Rath, Thailand’s top Thai-language newspaper, has reported rising national support for the People’s Party.
The same poll places the Pheu Thai Party in second place. Together, both parties control 61.17 per cent of support. The poll sample leaned toward Bangkok readers. Both parties are identified as pro-democracy. The tone is clear. Urban voters continue to shape the numbers.
However, the poll shows that national politics has not shifted dramatically. The Thai-Cambodian conflict last year did not transform the political field. The only major movement recorded is reduced strength for the Pheu Thai Party. Its dominance is no longer absolute. Support remains present but weakened.
Bhumjaithai in third place but electoral system favours constituency power and entrenched networks
Meanwhile, the ruling Bhumjaithai Party ranks third. The party records 13.15 per cent of voter support. The figure reflects solid standing but limited reach. It also highlights fragmentation across party lines.
However, raw polling figures do not always convert to parliamentary power. The election will take place on February 8. The voting system continues to shape final outcomes. In 2023, Bhumjaithai won 2.99 per cent of the national vote.
Yet the party secured 71 parliamentary seats. That amounted to 14.2 per cent of total seats. Therefore, the system rewarded constituency strength over national preference totals.
Moreover, this trend may intensify in the coming General Election. The People’s Party maintains strong national popularity. However, the party remains weak in local constituency contests. Power networks remain entrenched in many provinces. Local political families still influence outcomes. These groups are known as “Big House” networks. Therefore, national support does not guarantee parliamentary totals.
Poll points to two coalition paths while voters prioritise party loyalty over individual politicians
At the same time, poll projections show two likely coalition paths. One option is a People’s Party and Pheu Thai alignment. The second path is a Bhumjaithai-led coalition. However, the race remains open. No dominant winner has emerged.
Therefore, the People’s Party must convert national support into constituency victories. The task may succeed more easily in Bangkok. Urban centres remain more receptive. However, rural regions will pose greater difficulty. Local structures shape many contests.
Meanwhile, the Thai Rath Online poll has added further context. The survey ran from December 29, 2025 to January 4, 2026. It attracted over 1.75 million page views. A total of 11,419 respondents participated. The title was “Analysing the Election Trend: Thai People’s Confidence in Individuals and Political Parties.” The survey reflects projected political behavior in 2026.
However, the strongest signal was voter loyalty to party branding. Respondents were asked about MPs who switch parties. The question measured reactions to political defections. A total of 56.47 per cent said they would not support defecting MPs. They supported the party over the individual. Once the MP left the party, support ended.
Party list polling shows People’s Party far ahead as demographics reveal urban voters dominate survey
Meanwhile, 18.69 per cent remained undecided. Another 15.34 per cent said they would first review the new party’s policy. Only 9.49 per cent prioritised the individual candidate. Therefore, most voters now select based on party identity.
Moreover, the survey examined party-list voting interest. The People’s Party ranked first again. It recorded 41.38 per cent of support. That figure doubled the Pheu Thai total. Pheu Thai placed second with 19.79 per cent. Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai followed with 13.15 per cent.
Also, the Democrat Party recorded 10.53 per cent. The Economic Party polled at 5.57 per cent. Ruam Thai Sang Chart recorded 2.06 per cent. Thai Sang Thai registered 1.5 per cent. Thai Kao Mai received 1.12 per cent.
However, the poll also revealed who was responding. Most respondents were working adults and retirees. The largest age group was 46 to 59. This segment accounted for 34.34 per cent. The next largest was 60 and above, at 32.10 per cent. Respondents aged 36 to 45 totalled 13.06 per cent. The 26 to 35 group recorded 10.32 per cent. The 18 to 25 group represented 10.18 per cent.
Bangkok voters dominate responses as polls signal shifting loyalties and uncertain outcomes
Meanwhile, the majority of respondents lived in Bangkok and the surrounding areas. This accounted for 41.93 per cent. The Central region followed with 18.72 per cent. The Northeastern region accounted for 16.90 per cent. The Northern region recorded 11.91 per cent. The Southern region represented 10.54 per cent.
Therefore, the combined poll data shows clear structural patterns. National party support remains concentrated in Bangkok. Local political machinery remains powerful in provincial areas. Constituency races will determine parliamentary outcomes.
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Pheu Thai presents new Prime Ministerial nominee as the party aims to reset and win back voters to the fold
Nevertheless, the People’s Party leads among party-list selections. Pheu Thai remains competitive but has a reduced influence. Bhumjaithai continues to benefit from constituency organisation.
Also, voter behaviour signals a shift in political loyalty. Party identity outweighs personal loyalty. Switching parties carries severe electoral risk.
Meanwhile, the election remains open. Coalition paths presently remain fluid, but after the General Election, anything can happen. Certainly, this is true in the byzantine world of Thai political power. Parliamentary totals will depend on final constituency results.
Therefore, voter turnout, regional balance and party organisation remain decisive. The February vote will clarify the balance of power in the kingdom. Polls show momentum but not certainty.
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Further reading:
People’s Party candidate in Bangkok arrested on Monday over links to money laundering network
People’s Party on campaign but on guard against potential legal complaints to oversight agencies
Wealthy young People’s Party leader aims to create a technology-driven and efficient welfare state
