Exports jump again in October, but Thailand posted its biggest trade deficit since 2023 as the baht stays strong, imports surge, tourism slumps and farm shipments fall—fueling tough 2026 warnings despite booming electronics and car exports.
Thailand posted strong export growth in October, but also recorded its largest trade deficit since 2023 at $3.43 billion. The Thai baht held steady, signalling support from foreign inflows rather than trade strength. Exports of computer equipment and automobiles surged, providing a rare bright spot. Still, Thailand faces a tough 2026, with November and December exports expected to maintain growth at a slower pace.
Thailand’s exports rose 5.7% in October 2025, marking the 16th consecutive month of growth. This growth lifted total exports to US$28.83 billion. When excluding oil, gold, and military products, exports climbed 15.7%. Meanwhile, imports reached US$32.27 billion, up 16.3% from last year. Consequently, the trade deficit widened to US$3.43 billion.
Electronics, automotive, and industrial goods drove export gains. Electronics exports continued their upward trajectory. Automotive exports also posted strong results. Industrial goods strengthened overall performance. In contrast, agricultural exports fell 5.1% in October. This reflects continued weakness in Thailand’s farm sector.
The kingdom saw growth in car manufacturing and exports, which is encouraging news for Thai economic planners.
Thailand posts strong export gains but rising imports push trade deficit to highest level since 2023
For the first ten months of 2025, total exports reached $282.98 billion. Excluding oil, gold, and military products, year-to-date growth was 13.8%. Imports totalled $286.84 billion during the same period. The cumulative trade deficit amounted to $3.86 billion.
Exports to major markets such as the United States, China and the European Union remained strong. Secondary markets, including South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, also performed well. However, the CLMV region, consisting of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, contracted 15.6%.
The Ministry of Commerce forecasts total exports in 2025 between $332.98 billion and $334.98 billion. Annual growth is projected at 10.7% to 11.4%. Nevertheless, growth is expected to slow in 2026 due to high base effects, US tariffs and geopolitical challenges.
Thai manufacturing activity showed clear signs of expansion in October. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.6, up from 54.6 in September. This is the highest reading since May 2023. Therefore, production output and industrial activity are currently strong.
Export growth remains solid but CLMV contraction and 2026 slowdown risks weigh on outlook
The Thai baht remained resilient despite the trade deficit. It fell only minimally this week. The currency has gained 5.97% so far in 2025 and 7.05% year-on-year. Analysts attribute its strength to factors beyond trade, which may require policy adjustments in 2026.
Foreign tourism is down this year. Arrivals are 7.18% lower than in 2024. Provisional and extrapolated data indicate 2.3 to 2.5 million visitors arrived in October. Consequently, tourism revenue remains below last year’s levels.
Minister Suphajee Suthumpun announced strategies to sustain export growth. Authorities plan to explore new markets and negotiate trade agreements, particularly with the United States. Additionally, a task force has been formed to evaluate tax measures. This aims to ensure exporters receive the necessary guidance for efficient operations.
Exports remain supported by ongoing demand for electronics, processed agricultural products, and food. However, risks persist. The potential strengthening of the Thai baht could reduce competitiveness. Recent flooding has also impacted agricultural output.
Industrial strength drives October exports, but trade gaps and weak agriculture signal pressures
Export performance in October reflects sectoral divergence. Industrial and manufacturing goods performed strongly. Electronics and automotive exports continued with rising trends. Agricultural products lagged, contributing to import pressures. Consequently, the trade deficit remains a challenge.
Trade with key markets shows mixed results. Major markets such as the US, China, and the EU maintained growth. Secondary markets in South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America also delivered gains. However, CLMV markets contracted sharply, indicating uneven regional demand.
Imports accelerated faster than exports in several categories. Machinery, components, and raw materials drove the increase. Consequently, cumulative trade deficits persisted through the first ten months of 2025. Authorities expect this pattern to continue into year-end.
Policy measures aim to mitigate risks. Market diversification, trade negotiations, and targeted tax guidance are key steps. The task force will monitor tax impacts to maintain efficiency for exporters. Authorities are also preparing for export challenges in 2026.
Indicators show manufacturing up but weak tourism and agriculture as baht strength adds pressure
Economic indicators show a mixed outlook. Manufacturing and industrial exports are strong. Electronics and automotive sectors lead overall performance. Agricultural exports are weak, and tourism remains down. The Thai baht is firm, adding pressure to export pricing.
Thailand’s trade performance remains positive despite challenges. The export streak demonstrates resilience in industrial and manufacturing sectors. Authorities continue monitoring currency strength, regional markets, and supply disruptions. Exporters are supported by policy measures, market demand, and ongoing production growth.
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Overall, October 2025 data confirms steady expansion in exports, strong manufacturing output, and persistent trade deficits. However, agricultural weakness, slower tourism, and currency appreciation create ongoing risks. Thailand’s export sector remains robust, but challenges will shape 2026 performance.
At this time, the biggest challenge Ms Suphajee and the Ministry of Commerce face is to complete a US–Thai trade deal. On Friday, November 14th, the US Trade Representative’s office informed Thailand that negotiations on this deal will be paused. The minister has promised it will be finalised by the end of 2025.
Despite a renewed interest in interaction with Cambodia, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has not retracted his repudiation of the Thai–Cambodian Peace Declaration signed with US President Trump on October 26th last.
This was the reason for the suspension in talks. Business leaders fret that a continued delay may lead to a negative development in Thailand’s trade access to the United States, its biggest and most lucrative export market.
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Further reading:
Trump brokered peace pact between Thailand and Cambodia suspended after landmine attack this week
Prime Minister Anutin signs accord with Cambodia witnessed by US President Trump in Kuala Lumpur
Trump to oversee ground breaking new deal between Thailand and Cambodia on Saturday to map border
High powered, secretive meeting chaired by PM agrees robust action against Cambodian networks
Thailand and Cambodia face danger from ‘Dragon Head’ the Chinese mafia leader behind the scams
