Thailand’s vital tourism industry is under threat as Chinese arrivals weaken, Gulf airlines slash flights and Middle East tensions hit bookings. Despite 13.4 million visitors and 654 billion baht in revenue, fears are growing of a brutal 15% collapse in arrivals.
Thailand’s tourism industry has topped 13.4 million foreign arrivals and generated almost 654 billion baht in just five months. However, behind the headline numbers, the sector is coming under mounting pressure. China, Thailand’s biggest market, is weakening amid security fears and official travel warnings, while Middle Eastern airline capacity has plunged 33.7% since the Gulf conflict erupted. At the same time, major Gulf carriers are cutting routes, tourists are delaying bookings, and fuel prices are rising ahead of the crucial July travel season. Although officials are pinning hopes on Eid demand, soaring Indian arrivals and wealthy Saudi visitors, foreign tourist numbers are already down 9% from last year and forecasts now warn of a possible 15% collapse in annual arrivals as geopolitical instability and global uncertainty batter Thailand’s most important economic engine.
Thailand recorded more than 13.4 million foreign tourist arrivals between January 1 and May 24, according to figures released on Wednesday by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. Revenue reached 653.986 billion baht during the same period.
The figures were released by the Minister of Tourism and Sports, Surasak Phancharoenworakul, as the government attempted to steady confidence in the tourism sector. Although arrivals remained below last year’s levels, officials pointed to stronger weekly growth. Nevertheless, pressure continues to build across several key markets.
China remained Thailand’s largest source market during the first five months of 2026. Chinese arrivals totalled 2,237,215 visitors. However, the market declined by slightly more than 1%. Industry operators linked the slowdown to renewed security concerns surrounding Thailand.
Chinese slowdown and rising Indian arrivals reshape Thailand’s fragile tourism recovery outlook
In addition, official travel advisories issued by Chinese authorities affected confidence among travellers. Malaysia ranked second with 1,552,217 arrivals. Meanwhile, India delivered 1,003,993 visitors. Russia followed with 928,774 tourists, while South Korea contributed another 525,550 arrivals.
Importantly, India surpassed one million cumulative arrivals this week. Consequently, Indian tourism has become increasingly important for Thailand’s recovery strategy.
Weekly foreign arrivals reached 520,536 visitors. That represented an increase of 51,363 tourists from the previous week. As a result, weekly arrivals rose 10.95%. Average daily arrivals stood at 74,362 visitors.
Malaysia generated the largest weekly total with 92,275 arrivals. China followed with 85,317 visitors while India recorded 55,033 arrivals. Taiwan contributed 17,318 tourists, and the United States added 16,937 arrivals. Notably, Malaysian arrivals rose 32.87% week-on-week. Indian arrivals increased 10.07% while Taiwanese arrivals climbed 8.08%. American arrivals also rose 7.46%. However, Chinese arrivals declined by 1.25% during the same period.
Weekly tourist growth boosts confidence despite the continued decline in arrivals from China
The Minister of Tourism and Sports stated that further gains were expected next week. In particular, officials pointed to the extended Eid al-Adha holiday period across Islamic countries. The holiday is expected to stimulate outbound travel demand throughout the Middle East and parts of Asia.
Consequently, Thailand hopes to secure additional visitors from Muslim-majority markets. The government also cited improving domestic energy conditions. According to officials, prices are increasingly aligning with global market levels.
Furthermore, authorities referred to ongoing campaigns promoting Thailand as a safe tourism destination. Officials believe those measures may help restore international confidence.
However, optimism surrounding Eid demand comes against worsening airline capacity figures from the Middle East. Fresh industry data showed monthly seat capacity between Thailand and the Middle East plunged by 33.7% compared with levels before the Gulf conflict. Available airline seats dropped to 199,595 in May.
Eid holiday hopes rise even as Middle East airline capacity collapses amid Gulf conflict fears
Before the conflict, total monthly capacity stood at 300,902 seats. Fourteen airlines currently operate services between Thailand and the Middle East. Nevertheless, major Gulf carriers have sharply reduced operations during recent months.
Emirates reduced seat capacity between Dubai and Bangkok by 20%. However, the airline maintained existing capacity on Phuket services. Qatar Airways cut Doha-Bangkok capacity by 50%. In addition, Doha-Phuket capacity declined by 33%.
Etihad Airways reduced Abu Dhabi-Phuket capacity by 30%. However, Bangkok services remained unchanged. The reductions carry wider implications for Thailand’s tourism industry. Crucially, Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi serve as major transit hubs linking Thailand with Europe. Consequently, reduced Gulf capacity also weakens European tourism connectivity.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand warned that geopolitical instability remains a serious risk factor. Chiravadee Khunsub, deputy governor for Europe, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas at the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said tensions involving the United States and Iran could escalate again.
Gulf airlines cut Thailand routes sharply as geopolitical tensions disrupt forward travel bookings
As a result, many Middle Eastern tourists are delaying travel decisions. According to Mrs Chiravadee, travellers increasingly wait until the final days before departure before confirming trips. Many bookings are now completed only seven to fourteen days before travel dates. Nevertheless, tourism officials believe underlying demand remains substantial.
Mrs Chiravadee cited 1.21 million tourism-related online searches from the Middle East during May. Therefore, interest in Thailand remains active despite weaker booking levels. However, travellers continue postponing payment decisions because of regional uncertainty.
Tourism Ministry data showed Thailand received 103,053 Middle Eastern visitors during the first four months of 2026. That represented a sharp 32% decline year-on-year. Even so, Phuket has remained comparatively resilient. Several airlines maintained Phuket capacity despite wider route reductions. According to tourism officials, Phuket continues attracting long-stay and luxury travellers from the region.
Thailand continues competing against Malaysia, the Maldives, Bali, Turkey and European destinations for Middle Eastern visitors. According to Tourism Authority assessments, Thailand remains highly competitive in beach tourism and island resorts.
Thailand targets Saudi and African markets as competition intensifies for Middle Eastern visitors
In addition, officials highlighted strong aviation connectivity and family-friendly tourism infrastructure. Wellness tourism and spa services also remained key strengths. However, halal food availability remained weaker than in rival destinations. Officials, therefore, assigned Thailand a lower competitiveness rating in that category. Consequently, tourism authorities are attempting to diversify visitor markets more aggressively.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand identified Saudi Arabia as a priority growth market. Saudi tourists are expected to spend an average of 110,000 baht per trip. Meanwhile, officials are expanding efforts toward African tourism markets.
The Tourism Authority plans familiarisation campaigns targeting South Africa, Morocco and Mauritius. Those markets recorded rapid growth during 2025. South African arrivals increased 6.6% last year. Moroccan arrivals surged 66% while Mauritian arrivals climbed 34.8%. Officials expect the key Middle Eastern recovery period to fall between June and August. Importantly, the period coincides with extended school holidays across the region.
Therefore, the Tourism Authority’s Dubai office is preparing campaigns with airlines and online travel agents. The objective is to secure bookings before the peak July and August travel period. Meanwhile, tourism operators reported significant changes in traveller behaviour following the Gulf conflict.
Middle Eastern tourists seek longer stays and cheaper hotels as airfares continue climbing sharply
Association of Thai Travel Agents vice-president Uraiwan Thaipakdee said Middle Eastern families continue planning extended holidays in Thailand. Demand remains particularly strong for serviced apartments in Bangkok. Many families seek three-bedroom and four-bedroom units. Some visitors plan stays lasting up to four weeks.
However, rising airfares are increasingly affecting travel spending patterns. Consequently, some tourists are requesting lower-cost hotels to offset expensive flights. At the same time, travellers have become more cautious about cancellation policies.
Ms Uraiwan said concerns intensified following mass flight cancellations during the early stages of the Gulf conflict. Therefore, many travellers now demand greater booking flexibility before confirming bookings. Analysts also warned that fuel prices may remain elevated during the coming months. In particular, aircraft fuel costs are expected to rise further during July when global travel demand accelerates.
Tourism fears deepen as Thailand faces a possible 15% collapse in annual foreign visitor arrivals
The broader tourism outlook, therefore, remains fragile despite stronger weekly arrival figures. Industry fears are growing that Thailand could suffer a significant annual decline in foreign tourism numbers.
Some projections suggest total arrivals could fall from 33 million in 2025 to 28 million in 2026. That would represent a contraction of approximately 15%. As a result, Thailand is becoming increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern demand to support overall visitor numbers.
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At the same time, the Chinese market remains unstable. Security concerns and official advisories continue weighing heavily on recovery prospects. The second half of 2026 is therefore expected to become critical for Thailand’s tourism sector. Much will depend on airline capacity, fuel costs and geopolitical developments surrounding the Middle East conflict.
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